Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 58-62
Wednesday - Mostly Sunny. High: 82-86
Wednesday Night - Mostly Cloudy. Low: 62-66
Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High: 84-88
Friday - Rain. High: 80-84
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The first part of the forecast period will bring temperatures that are fairly low for August, with values in the low to mid 80s. Humidity values will also remain low. Clouds will start to build in on Wednesday night, keeping temperatures relatively high overnight. The end of the week will see the return of a chance for rain, with rain possible during the day Friday.
Forecasters: Heaven, Munley, Travis
Issued: 4:45 p.m. ; 27 August 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC Model Guidance prefers the GFS during the forecast period, with confidence being above average. Temperatures are expected to climb throughout the week, as we recover into near normal temperatures. GFS surface analysis shows a surface high tracking south through the upper Midwest, before heading east across Kansas and Missouri. Winds will start out of the east, before switching to the south on Thursday as the high tracks past. GFS soundings indicate that clouds should stay clear until Wednesday night, at which point we will start seeing moisture return over Missouri. Given the clear skies and eventual shift of winds to the south, a warming trend is expected until Friday.
Friday will see the return of chances for rain for Columbia, and with it the possibility of thunderstorms. Current GFS guidance indicates a cold front draping through the Great Lakes to the Missouri-Iowa border on Friday morning. This is expected to move south, at which point the cold front will collide with a warm front extending out of a surface low based in far western Kansas. A stationary front will set up during the day on Friday across mid-Missouri. Where this stationary front sets up exactly will impact how much rain we get, with GFS indicating total rainfall values of over an inch along the stationary front.