Thursday, August 29, 2019

Thursday Night - Skies becoming cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight. Low: 68-72

Friday - Cloudy. Showers continuing into the morning. Lingering afternoon thundershowers are possible. High: 76-80

Friday Night - Cloudy. Overnight showers likely. Low: 64-68

Saturday - Cloudy. Scattered showers possible in the afternoon. High: 82-86

Sunday - Partly cloudy skies. High: 84-88

Thanks to for the icons!

Unfortunately, once the sun goes down Thursday evening, mid-Missouri will likely not see it again for a few days. A dynamic weather maker will approach the region tonight and stick around until Saturday night. The lack of sun will keep our temperatures relatively mild (upper 70s). Showers and showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through after 10:pm. Columbia is under a severe thunderstorm watch. A few storms could produce some small hail and strong winds. Lingering showers will stick around into most of Friday with more thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. These storms, if they do occur, will likely not reach severe limits. Grey skies and rain chances continue into Saturday until partial sunshine is finally expected to return Sunday.
Forecasters: Travis
Issued:  p.m. ; 29 August 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

 An active weather pattern is shaping up across the region. The NWS has placed Boone County under a severe thunderstorm watch until 11:00pm. Beyond the convection that is already developing north of the city, the chances for continued rainfall over much of the state for much of the forecast period looks to be the main issue for this forecast. For short term, used the HRRR, 12km and 3km NAM. As per WPC recommendations, went primarily with the GFS and SREF for extended guidance. 

As of 21:00 UTC severe warned storms have already begun to fire along the OFB of this morning's MCS over SE Iowa and extreme NE Missouri. The first of the two storms has begun to weaken slightly, but was supercellular in nature. The storm behind it near Kirksville appears to be taking on the characteristics of a supercell as well. SPC Mesoanalysis of CAPE and Eff. Bulk shear suggests that as the storms continue southeast, they will be moving into an stronger sheared environment with less CAPE to tap into. 

Moving ahead into tonight, according to simulated reflectivity, both the HRRR and NAM NEST want a loosely organized line of storms moving through Columbia in between 5:00 and 6:00 UTC. GFS time heights and RAP soundings are in consensus with precipitation beginning at this time. To our south, closer to Springfield the line becomes much more well organized. Some of these storms could produce gusty winds. Seeing as the WBZ height is above 10kft, according to GFS soundings for tonight, the threat for large hail remains low. GFS 500-hPa vorticityJust as the vorticity maxima that is driving this afternoon's convection, a new shortwave will develop in northern KS and move into MO overnight tonight and into tomorrow. This will keep rain in our forecast for most of tomorrow and into tomorrow night. CAMs suggest much more isolated showers after 18:00 or 19:00 UTC. 
GFS 700-hPa RH and Omega suggests moisture will linger over the state for much of Saturday. Therefore the threat for showers continues into the day Saturday. Both GFS 700-hPa and soundings indicate a drying of the column; clouds should move out after Sunday mornings and temperatures will be on the increase.

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