Friday, August 30, 2019

Friday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Showers ending in the evening. Low: 62-66

Saturday - Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible throughout the day. High: 72-76

Saturday Night - Becoming partly cloudy. Low: 64-68

 Sunday - Skies becoming mostly clear. High: 78-82

Monday - Mostly clear. High: 84-88

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Soggy weather will continue in Columbia for much of Friday, slowing down as the day progresses. For the most part, showers should be out of mid-Missouri by sundown with skies potentially clearing slightly overnight. Saturday, there remains a slight chance for lingering isolated showers. Our temperatures will remain slightly below average for this time of the year until this system exits the region Saturday night. The sun will return on Sunday and will allow us to warm up to near average. Monday we will see more summer-like temperatures just in time for Labor Fay Festivities.
Forecasters: Travis
Issued:  2:30 p.m. ; 29 August 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

As the greatest chances for rain diminishes into Friday night, the main focus of this period is the issue of sky conditions during the day and to what extent diurnal heating will play in this weekend's temperatures. Went primarily with GFS and SREF as per WPC's recommendations of a non-NAM blend. 

The S/W that developed in northern KS yesterday has since moved into MO, pushing through the storms we saw just off to our west on Thursday night. RAP analysis loops place the vorticity maximum to the southwest of Columbia, over Clinton, MO. Prognostics of GFS 500-hPa heights and absolute vorticity show this S/W moving swiftly to the east by this evening. This will take with it, the chances for widespread precipitation, but lingering showers overnight, Friday night into Saturday, will not be out of the question. 

Saturday will see slim chances for isolated showers following the exit of the S/W and the approach of the next disturbance. The majority of the moisture and lift will be well to the region's east at this point hence the slim chance and isolated nature of the showers. Skies may even have a chance for partial clearing. If skies are able to clear, diurnal heating will play a role in daytime highs and therefore current thinking of 72-76 may turn out an under-prediction. If a thick deck of low clouds from 820 hPa to the sfc remains into Saturday (as is favored by both GFS and NAM Skew-Ts) temperatures will likely be right at the above range.

In its wake, the GFS resolves a much weaker S/W taking a very similar path from northern KS into MO, on Saturday night into Sunday. Due to the weaker intensity of the wave itself, and the lack of significant moister in the atmosphere, this wave will not bring any chances of precipitation into Sunday. In fact, Sunday we will see the sun return as GFS soundings dry out the column significantly. With the presence of ~1200 J/Kg of CAPE during the day Sunday, it is likely that diurnal heating will play a significant role in allowing our daytime temperatures to climb back to normal for this time of the year. Of course, with the absence of plentiful moisture as well as a dynamic setup, not forecasting anything in the way of thunderstorm activity, Sunday. 

Monday the flow at 850 hPa shifts southerly and advection will begin to aid the solar insolation in yet another temperature climb for Labor Day. Expect temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80s, perfect summer weather for the holiday. 

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