Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 64-68

 Wednesday - Partly Cloudy. High: 76-80

Wednesday Night - Becoming mostly clear. Low: 56-60

 Thursday - Partly cloudy. High: 78-82

 Friday - Partly Cloudy. High: 84-88

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Tonight we will see a weak cold front pass through, bringing our temperatures down below average for early September. There is a lack of moisture with this front, so rain chances are very slim. Tomorrow temperatures will rebound slightly, but will still be significantly cooler than what Columbia saw on Tuesday. Temperatures will be on a gradual climb for the remainder of the period.
Forecasters: Vanderpool, Lujan, Munley, Heaven, Travis
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; September 3, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

 Given current WPC analysis of the models, this forecast was made using the GFS.  Tonight will remain humid with high temperatures, which will soon give way to a cold front early tomorrow morning, based off a low in the Great Lakes.  Not much in the way of rain is expected given the rather poor environment, however there is a threat of a few showers early tomorrow morning.  The passage of the cold front should relieve us from the high temperatures and humidity, leaving us with below average conditions.  High pressure will begin to take hold over the region, with the surface high staying to our north.  This high will dive south thorough the Upper Plains, and remain off to our north.  Winds will remain out of the north after cold frontal passage on Wednesday, driven by the high to our northwest.  The high will pass to out northeast on Thursday, leading to WAA in the latter half of the week.  Temperatures will increase again to normal values, with dew points also rising.  Chances for rain in the latter half of the week remain low, with no rain expected.  Cloud cover is expected to be fairly spotty through Friday.  Friday will see the passage of another cold front, based off a low near the Great Lakes.  While there is cold frontal passage, no precipitation is expected at this time.  While soundings indicate decent amounts of CAPE, GFS indicates a large cap will be in place, essentially stopping convection.  Moisture, lift, and instability seem to line up rather poorly, given current guidance, however if the timing changes Friday may need to be adjusted greatly.  If the cold front slows down slightly, storms may end up in the forecast. 

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