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Winds from the South continue to keep us relatively warm compared to the seasonal averages. As the high pressure system moves east out of our area, a possibility for rain this evening into tomorrow morning. Wednesday temps will rise again into the upper 70s and lower 80s; however, a cold front will pass in the afternoon. This will likely bring more showers in the afternoon till Thursday morning. Thursday will be fairly calm once the slow moving front passes through the area and temps will again be above average.
Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, and Munley
Issued: 10:00 a.m. ; September 23, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC Guidance more of a NAM guidance this morning as GFS has features to fast. The use of SREF will also be used. The challenge for this forecast is tiing of rain and sky condition.
This morning high clouds were observed over Mizzou as a disturbance located on the Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri/Arkansas boarder. The aforementioned disturbance is moving to the east and won't be bothering us here at Mizzou but is again giving us a high level clouds the day as well a high pressure system still sitting to our east over Illinois. As the afternoon hours approach winds are expected to pick up due to the low level jet ramping up a bit with winds out of the southwest at 20-30kts at 850mb, bringing gusts at the surface to upwards of 20mph at times. With the WWA being introduced in the column bring cloud cover during the afternoon hours and a possibility of rain this evening but once the sun sets, the LLJ seems to die off taking away any support for showers or storms, otherwise partly cloudy skies. Wednesday a cold front is slated to move through the area with showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of the front. The cold front is expected to move through the area during the late morning/early afternoon hours. With temperatures reaching around 80 degrees could get enough instability to get a thunderstorm to show up but otherwise just rain showers look to be the biggest possibility tomorrow. A shortwave trough associated with the front will be located to our south and the most lift seen is to the south and west of the shortwave trough, being to the north of the shortwave will dampen out chances for thunderstorm potential. The cold front does appear to be a slow mover once it passes over Mid-Missouri, continuing our chances for rain overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. A surface high pressure appears to fill in to our north and west over eastern Nebraska.