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The hot weather will continue throughout today and the for rest of the work week. High pressure continues to sit over the Midwest. The ridge is bringing southerly winds which is bringing in those warmer temperatures. It will also feel muggy as well again along with those hot temperatures due to the winds from the south bringing in the warm tropical moisture from the south. However, after Friday night into Saturday morning, the temperatures will become more seasonal due to a cold front that will make its way into the area Saturday afternoon. This cold front will bring showers and some thunderstorms into the area for Saturday afternoon and evening.
Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Pauley, Munley
Issued: 10:00 a.m. ; September 19, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC indicates a use of EURO Ensembles and GEFS Ensembles, we are using the 12Z GFS and GEFS Ensembles for this forecast.
Clear conditions to begin Thursday as we are still under the influence of a upper level ridge that has been fairly slow moving to exit the forecast area. Convection is ongoing up in Iowa due to a shortwave that is trying to roll through the ridge. Pop up showers are possible for during the afternoon according to the 13Z HRRR due to surface based convection from the heating of the day but chances die off after sunset and give way to partly cloudy skies overnight. Friday sunny skies turn into cloudy skies for the afternoon as upper level moisture is introduced into the column as WWA continues with southerly winds and tropical moisture is being transported from now remnants of Imelda. With all that moisture will bring high level clouds turning into mostly cloudy skies for Friday night. Friday night scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible as the column does begin to saturate with a slightly unstable atmosphere but with little lift, it is expected to be more of a lighter rain. Saturday brings a better chance of rain with tropical moisture continuing to be transported from remnants of Imelda as PWAT values are up near 1.70-2.00in. 700mb RH and omega line up better to give a chance for more widespread steady rain, a stray thunderstorm is not out of the question. Rain is expected for most of the day but also expected to subside around 00Z Sunday briefly then rain picks back up overnight Saturday into Sunday.