Monday, September 30, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 86-90

Monday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 66-70

Tuesday - Partly sunny. High: 86-90

Tuesday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 69-72

Wednesday - Scattered morning showers. Cloudy High: 82-86

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A stationary front passed through this weekend bringing rain. This persisted into a warm front that traveled north of Mid-Missouri leaving us with warmer and more humid conditions. A high pressure system off to the SE dominates our weather and will continue to do so for the beginning of the work week. Due to this, we will be seeing clearer conditions and winds out of the south which will fuel warmer temperatures. High temperatures will be almost 20 degrees above average nearing 90 for Monday and Tuesday. Low temperatures will also be well above average each night. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning presents an approaching cold front that will bring cloud cover and scattered showers beginning around sunrise and not persisting into the afternoon. A cool down may occur after the front has completely passed in the latter part of the week.
Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, Hirsch
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; September 30,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Over the weekend a warm front moved through the area that brought along with it rain Saturday night. After this FROPA, conditions from 12Z Monday till about 18Z Tuesday look to be dominated by a high pressure over the southern US. This will proceed to give us southerly flow with the humidity being felt. Winds are out of the south until about 500 mb where they take a SW shift. Temperatures will be almost 20 degrees above normal for these few days and overnight lows won't be any better. Clouds will start to increase ahead of a cold front that will stall across the region on Wednesday. With the moisture out ahead of this approaching system, rain looks like. GFS skew Ts quickly saturate in the lowest level from 06-09Z on the second indicating rain. From 09Z till about 15Z, rain is expected fall. There is ample moisture while omega struggles to be overly impressive with values around -5 mb/s between 850-700 mb. This shallow depth and dry period along with QPF values around .1" indicate a weak morning event. However, if the system progresses faster or moves more directly over central MO, we could expect more rain. This is something future forecasters should watch. The front stalls over MO keeping clouds in the forecast and cooler than earlier this week but there is a chance for rain again overnight that is just outside our time zone.

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