Friday, September 13, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field


  Friday Night - Partly Cloudy.  Low: 56-60

  Saturday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 82-84

Saturday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 63-67 

Sunday - Mostly Cloudy.  High: 88-92

Monday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 88-92

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Friday afternoon into evening will be quite pleasant, with seasonally average temperatures and low humidity expected.  Some cloud cover will stay into the night over Columbia.  Saturday is game day, and temperatures will start to rise once again above seasonal norms.   Humidity will start to increase in the afternoon, but conditions are not expected to be too muggy.  Dew point values are expected to hover around the low to mid 50s.  Sunday will see even warmer temperatures given our current warming trend, along with dew points once again reaching 70 degrees, leading to conditions similar to those of earlier this week.  Monday will see temperatures and humidity very similar to that of Sunday.  Temperatures will be high, with dew points near, if not at, 70 degrees.  
Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  3:00 p.m. ; September 13, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC Model Diagnostics still prefer the pattern of the GFS, and thus will be the model of choice.  Friday will stay rather nice, given we are remaining within CAA through tomorrow.  A surface high based in Colorado is working along with a surface low based in far northern Minnesota to push cold air down into Missouri.  This will keep our dew points down and our temperatures at seasonal norms for a period.  This surface high will rapidly head east overnight, passing directly over Columbia early Saturday morning.  This passage of the high will set us up in WAA for quite some time, and thus a warming trend has been forecasted over the warming period.  This WAA will bring temperatures up a fair amount, along with dew points.  12Z GFS indicates that moisture transport into Columbia is not particularly strong until early Sunday morning, so it will be warm on Saturday, but not too muggy.  Saturday night will see clouds clear out, but only for a brief period.  Once moisture begins advecting into the area in full swing, clouds will begin to return.  Sunday will see conditions similar to those earlier in the week, with temperatures approaching 90.  12Z GFS and 09Z SREF both indicate dew point increasing rapidly in the morning on Sunday, before plateauing shortly after at about 70 degrees.  Sunday afternoon will start to see the breakdown of WAA into the area, as lines of 500-1000mb Thickness are expected to quickly transition to becoming parallel to lines of MSLP.  Our winds will still be out of the southwest keeping humidity fairly high, but temperatures are not expected to increase past Sunday.  Monday will be very similar to Sunday, in that temperatures will remain high, as  will the dew points.  No precipitation is expected during the forecast period, or even frontal passage. 

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