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This week will continue to see unseasonably warm temperatures and dew points. Columbia is forecast to be quite muggy through Thursday, with dew points nearing 70 degrees. Fair weather cumulus is expected in the forecast for most of the week. High level cirrus may also show up at random periods throughout the week.
Issued: 9:30 a.m. ; September 17, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
This forecast period is not going to see all too much change with model preferences, given the significant ridge overhead. Any model will do, however GFS has been selected for this forecast period, with SREF for supplemental temperature forecasting.
The ridge currently over us seems to be wanting to stick around, as GFS does not want to move it at all through at least Thursday. Driving winds at ~500mb are very low, keeping the vertically stacked high meandering around the Missouri-Arkansas border. The forecast period is to be dominated by fairly weak southerly winds, keeping moisture relatively high and temperature in the low 90s. 500mb Absolute Vorticity shows a few shortwaves trying to cross the ridge, however all of these that can hold themselves together stay off far to the north. Troughs will continue to attempt to erode at this ridge, however no breakdown of the ridge is expected at all through Thursday. All days of the forecast will experience fair weather cumulus, thus the partly cloudy forecast. With this ridge dominating our forecast, and no shortwaves attempting to traverse the ridge near us, no precipitation is expected.