Thursday, September 19, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 66-70


Friday - Becoming mostly cloudy after noon. High: 84-88

Friday Night -Becoming cloudy after sunset. Showers beginning after midnight. Breezy. Low:68-72

Saturday - Cloudy. Showers continuing throughout the day. Breezy. High: 76-80

Sunday - Cloudy. Showers continuing. Breezy. High: 76-80
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Thursday night cloud cover will into the AOR becoming a scattered deck. This will transition into further cloud cover on Friday and overnight CIGS will lower and thicken into a broken/overcast layer. In the early AM hours, showers will begin dropping VIS, however will remain Cat D. In the Saturday morning hours precip will become more predominate, and up to 23mph. Sunday conditions will continue to persist.
Forecasters: Owens, Travis 
Issued:  4:30 p.m. ; September 19,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
This forecast was created using the 12z HRRR, the 15z SREF, 12z NAM/GFS Meteogram, 12z GFS MOS, 12z GFS SREF/GEFS Plumes, 19Z RAP Skew-T. With the unseasonably hot weather winding down, the main issue of this forecast period is assessing the chances for precip this weekend.

Upper level analysis is primarly showing a meridional pattern (T/R/T) in the 250mb level. 500/700mb is showing a S/W Trough (CA/NV) upstream of the AOR with MAA at the 700mb level. In addition to this the AOR is dominated by an area of High pressure, centered downstream of the station. This is continued to be reflected down on 850mb/SFC levels with a cold front reflected on the SFC. 

Over the course of Thursday night into Friday the primary influence over station will be the MAA in the mid-levels from Tropical Depression. While the Atmosphere continue to reflect a conditionally unstable environment, there is no strong trigger moving through the area to truly take advantage of this. There have been isolated pockets of convection, however this is a none issue over the station, as convective temperature is not expected to be reached. 

As Friday evening approaches the down stream cold front will move into the AOR. While this cold front is still expected to be weak, it will interact with the MAA that has been pushed into the AOR. While most of the current model run is in agreement that this will not be enough energy for convection, the most interesting numbers are 200J of CAPE. There will still be enough lift and moisture to provide showers through the remainder of the forecast period. 

In addition the this, there will also be strong southerly flow in the low levels. Whilst this will provide strong enough wind speeds to help with the needed lift, this will also combine with the tightening gradient, generated by the low to give 20kts of winds.

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