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Forecasters: Heaven, Lujan, Vanderpool, and Munley
Issued: 5:15 p.m. ; September 24, 2019
Tuesday night, we will see a chance for a stray shower with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60's. Wednesday, clouds will persist until the evening, becoming mostly clear overnight. Expect highs in the upper 70's to lower 80's with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50's. Thursday, clouds will build throughout the day. Highs in the upper 70's. Friday, we anticipate afternoon thunderstorms.
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC Guidance indicates general model blend is dealing with the current setup rather well, and as such the GFS is preferred for the forecast period. 15Z SREF is also to be used for temperature guidance.
WAA into our area continues to keep us above average temperatures, with cloud cover overnight also helping to keep temperatures high. The surface high off to our east will continue to advect warm air over us through tomorrow. Tonight has the chance for a stray shower associated with a 500mb shortwave, however these showers will be few and far between. Soundings overnight indicate poor saturation of the column, and thus only a shower or two is expected. Wednesday will see the passage of a cold front shortly before noon.Temperatures are still expected to get fairly warm on Wednesday, as there will still be WAA until frontal passage. CAA will soon take its place, and thus send temperatures quite low on Wednesday night. No precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. Wednesday night low will be the coldest point in the week, with signifigant disagreement between SREF members. There is a 27 degree difference between the hottest and coolest members, with the warmest being at 72 and coolest at 45. Minimal cloud cover is expected overnight. The forecasted temperature is currently expected to be within the mid 50s, however this may need to be changed tomorrow after the cold front passes, and we are closer to Wednesday night. Thursday will see clouds start to come back in, and bring with it WAA in the afternoon. A surface high will track across Missouri early Thursday, setting up southerly winds by noon in Columbia, bringing temperatures up. This WAA will stay in place through Friday. Temperatures on Friday will be high due to the WAA into the area, which is expected to weaken throughout the day. 500-1000mb thickness lines will begin to become parallel to lines of MSLP throughout the day, significantly weakening WAA. As this WAA weakens, a saddle point will set up over eastern Kansas, and frontogenesis is expected. This cold front will then pass through Columbia in the afternoon, bringing storms with it. These storms are currently not expected to be severe.