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Over the weekend, a cold front passed through bringing with it rain across the area. This moisture and lack of wind overnight lead to morning fog which will burn off by mid-morning. High pressure currently dominates overhead leading to a mostly sunny and more seasonal like day which will persist into Tuesday. Clouds will start to increase ahead of a weak cold front which has the potential to drop rain on the area early Wednesday morning. Clouds overnight on Tuesday will lead to a warmer night than Monday. Clouds Wednesday will slowly clear leading to a mix of sun and clouds during the day. Temperatures remain seasonal.
Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, Hirsch, Travis
Issued: 10:00 a.m. ; September 23, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
For this forecast period, the GFS 20 was used with a mix of ensemble products as the WPC recommended a general model blend.
At the start of the forecast period, fog blanketed the region and showed up well on GOES. The moisture for this came from the .5-.75" of rain that fell associated with FROPA on Sunday. Most of the forecast period remains in a high pressure behind the FROPA. This will lead to seasonal temperatures and ample sunshine. Winds at surface will slowly turn to the south but will remain weak, 5-10 kts, while just above the surface, at 850 mb and up, winds remain from the north limiting moisture for the day.
Tuesday remains under the influence of the high as it slowly shifts off to the east. Clouds slowly start to build in the afternoon hours as moisture increases ahead of an approaching cold front. FROPA looks to be overnight with chances of rain between 06-12 Z on Wednesday. Moisture is limited and is mainly limited to along the leading edge of the cold front. Models aren't aggressive with the precip and show it being fairly scattered across COU. There is also weak omega associated with it as values are between -1 to -4 mb/s. SREF amounts are predominately below the 0.1" threshold. Once the cold front passes, it will stall just to our south in southern MO. Models indicate that rain chances are limited for us as we remain north of the main axis of development. If this stall further north, we could see more rain on Wednesday afternoon with a second round of development. We have left this out for this forecast but future forecasters need to focus on the potential for rain on Wednesday as chances exist, but confidence is low far out.