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Mid Missouri will continue to remain unseasonably warm and humid over the next two days due to a persistent high pressure centered over the lower Midwest. Overnight lows will tend to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, while afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Partly cloudy skies will persist through Thursday night. This warm pattern should begin to erode on Friday, however, as a disturbance approaches from the west. This will cause high temperatures on Friday to be 5-10 degrees lower, with increasing clouds and rain possible by the afternoon hours.
Forecasters: Vanderpoll, Lujan, Munley, Heaven
Issued: 4:30 p.m. ; September 17, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Once again this afternoon's forecast is a persistence forecast. Challenges are really sky condition and temperatures. According to the WPC guidance is to work with the GFS and GEFS ensembles.
500mb driving winds are are very low, keeping the vertically stacked high meandering around the Missouri-Arkansas border. The ridge currently over us seems to be wanting to stick around, as GFS does not want to move it at all through at least Thursday. Southerly winds are dominating our forecast period continuing to usher in warm air in throughout the column. Wednesday upper level and mid-level moisture according to GFS 12Z forecast Skew Ts indicating a cirrus cloud day kind of like today and maybe a few diurnal cumulus for Wednesday and through Wednesday night. Thursday sky conditions look to be partly cloudy and hot, and will be the case until the upper level ridge moves out from the area. Friday the column wants to try to moisten up to give a good chance for cloudy skies and forecast soundings indicate a possibility for rain Friday evening but will defer timing to later shifts. Friday temperatures should drop to around 82-86 with the help of cloud cover building into the area and is something to look forward to rather these 90 degree days.