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We are dealing with much the same here in mid-Missouri. If you are not a lover of the warm weather, you are not going to enjoy this forecast. A large high pressure system parked over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas will keep our temperatures in the low to mid 90s with dew points near 70. Fair skies and ample sunshine with intermittent high level clouds will continue for the remainder of the work week.
Forecasters: Hatch, Heaven, Travis
Issued: 4:30 p.m. ; September 16, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
With such a quiet period for the week ahead, the main issue of this forecast is the summertime heat sticking with mid-Missouri. As per WPC recommendation of a general model blend, went primarily with GFS guidance due to its coverage of the entire forecast period. Consulted SREF and GEFS for temperature guidance.
A classic late summer early fall like weather pattern has setup over the CONUS. RAP analysis loops depict a strong ridge at both 250 hPa and 500 hPa sitting over the central United States. To the west, a longwave trough attempts to chip away at the dominating ridge, but according to the analysis loops, it is not succeeding. Looking forward at the GFS for both 250 hPa and 500 hPa, the trough is not able to break down the ridge for the remainder of the forecast period. Prognostics of GFS 500-hPa heights and absolute vorticity show a series of minor shortwaves riding the ridge, but well off to our north in the Upper Midwest. Looking at 850-hPa heights and winds, flow will remain out of the WSW for the remainder of the week, continuing WAA and moisture advection. GFS Skew-Ts depict intermittent high and mid level saturation throughout the week. This will more than likely show itself as much of the same conditions mid-Missouri saw Monday: fair weather cumulus clouds and high level cirrus clouds. Evening cirrus clouds will help keep overnight lows in the low 70s (possibly higher).