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Wednesday night will see temperature dropping to near normal values, with a low expected in the upper 50s. Thursday will see mostly clear skies with temperatures in the mid 70s. Friday, a cold front pass over Columbia in the early evening, bringing storms with it. Temperatures will rise to unseasonably warm values during the day. Saturday will see rain for most of the day.
Forecasters: Heaven, Munley, Abruzzo, Dowell
Issued: 5:00 p.m. ; September 25, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC Guidance indicates the GFS is to be heavily favored in a forecast, and as such the GFS is the model of choice for this forecast, along with 15Z SREF for supplemental temperature forecasting.
Tonight will see partly cloudy skies, as 12Z GFS soundings indicate a ~50-100mb moist layer sandwiched between two significant dry layers. There does seem to be the possibility for virga from these soundings, however this is not expected to be visible, as the strongest indication for this is after dark. Temperatures on Wednesday night are expected to be the lowest of the week, with a forecast of the upper 50s. Previous SREF runs had significant disagreement among members about the low temperatures, however now there seems to be fairly good agreement of temperatures being in the 50s, with most trending around the upper 50s. Thursday will see the surface high over Kansas trek overhead and off to our east. This surface high will set up WAA once it has passed overhead in the afternoon on Thursday. This WAA will be in place through Friday, and thus the significant increase in temperatures on Friday. Thursday night will be quite nice, with clear skies and a mid 60s temperature. WAA will continue into Friday, as temperatures will continue to climb through the day ahead of a cold front. As temperatures rise, cloud cover will also begin to increase. Cold frontal passage is expected Friday afternoon, along with a linear system. Severe conditions are not expected at this time, as shear does not indicate discrete modes, and DCAPE values are around 600. After the cold front passes, it will soon begin to stall and rotate to become more zonal. The cold front will transition to a warm front, and pass over us again Saturday, although it will be quite slow to do so. This fronts evolution will be the main cause of our rain all day Saturday. Storms are not expected, with significant caps on all soundings, along with minimal upward motion. A rumble of thunder is not out of the question, however they will be few and far between.