Monday, September 16, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Monday - Mostly Sunny.  High: 90-94

Monday Night - Mostly Clear.  Low: 68-72


Tuesday -  Partly Cloudy.  High: 90-94

Tuesday Night -  Partly Cloudy.  Low:  70-74

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy in the evening.  High: 90-94
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The beginning part of the week will see warm temperatures similar to last week.  Temperatures will remain above average for September, with dew points also remaining high.  Conditions will remain muggy through the forecast period.  Cloud cover is slightly favored towards midweek.  Cloud cover Tuesday night has the potential to keep the low temperature higher than the low temperature on the previous night.  High temperatures are not expected to rise as we head into the middle of the week. 
Forecasters: Heaven, Clemons, Hirsch, Travis, Lieberman
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; September 16, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
With such a quiet period for the week ahead, the main issue of this forecast is the summertime heat sticking with mid-Missouri. As per WPC recommendation of a general model blend, went primarily with GFS guidance due to its coverage of the entire forecast period. Consulted SREF and GEFS for temperature guidance.

Conditions through the entire forecast period will be very similar, with expected highs in the lower 90s and dew points hovering around 70F.  We are currently located on the north side of a surface high, leading to winds being predominantly out of the south for the forecast period, however these winds will vary quite a bit.  The surface high is stalling over northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri, and small changes in the position of this high will changes winds quite a bit.  500mb Winds indicate very little in the way of steering for this high, and as such it is expected to slowly weaken into Tuesday.  Tuesday will be very similar to Monday, with temperatures expected to be in the low 90s.  We will remain within the ridge throughout the early part of the week, and no frontal passages are expected.  There does appear to be a small chance for pop ups throughout the early part of the week.  The primary mechanism for these storms would be surface convergence, which appears rather weak at this point.  As such, these storms have been left out of the forecast, however there is a slight chance for an isolated storm.  We will not be impacted by any fronts during this forecast period.  Temperatures are not expected to increase or decrease.  The dew points are also not expected to increase or decrease, with values hovering around 70F. 

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