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Temperature are expected to remain slightly above normal for late September through the week. A warming trend will be in place through Wednesday, as winds will be out of the south. These southerly winds will keep warm air over Columbia. Tuesday night will see a potential for rain. This rain is expected to end by the morning of Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon will see a cold front pass over Columbia, and temperatures are expected to decrease Thursday as a result.
Forecasters: Hatch, Munley, Travis, Heaven
Issued: 5:00 p.m. ; September 23, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
WPC Guidance indicates 12Z GFS is handling current trends well, and thus is the model of choice. 15Z SREF will also be used for more accurate forecasting of the temperatures.
Yesterday saw the passage of a cold front attached to a low over the Great Lakes. This lowered our temperatures quite a bit, however temperatures are expected to increase again throughout the week. Strong WAA will be in place by midnight tonight, and will continue through Wednesday. Rain is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday, associated with a fairly weak 500mb shortwave. 12Z GFS indicates there will also be sufficient upward vertical motion at 700mb, along with divergence at 250mb. RH at all levels seems fairly low, however some showers are still expected. These showers are expected to be fairly weak, however there could be a rumble of thunder associated with these showers. These showers will end Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon will see the passage of a rather weak cold front, bringing no precipitation with it. RH values at all levels are expected to be very low, and there is minimal support at 500mb, 700mb, and 850mb, with no features supporting any sort of precipitation with this cold front. Temperatures will fall again slightly Thursday, however WAA will also increase very quickly during the afternoon Thursday. Temperatures on Thursday will still be lower than those on Wednesday, however the low temperature on Wednesday night has the possibility to be exceptionally cold. SREF members have a 25 degree spread from 70 to 45 degrees overnight. Once WAA begins to take place, temperatures will increase very quickly.