Thursday, September 5, 2019

Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 66-70

Friday - Partly Cloudy. High: 78-80


Friday Night - Clouds building in. Low: 58-62

Saturday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 78-82

Sunday - Cloudy with showers possible. High: 80-84

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Earlier today we saw the passage of a fairly weak warm front, bringing temperatures for tonight up to a relatively warm high 60s range.  Friday will see the passage of a relatively weak cold front.  This cold front will not bring any rain with it, and will not bring down temperatures very much.  Clouds will start building in overnight, leading into a fairly cloudy weekend.  Temperatures will remain fairly nice, with temperatures for the weekend in the low to mid 80s.
Forecasters: Heaven, Travis
Issued:  5:00 p.m. ; September 5, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

WPC guidance currently suggests using the GFS, and such will be the model of choice for this forecast period will be the GFS.  The warm front has recently passed just off to our east, bringing very weak WAA into the area.  Temperatures will increase slightly into the evening, however will not drastically increase, as we are just outside of the peak heating period.  Tonight will see fairly warm temperatures, given the WAA and partial cloud cover.  Cold frontal passage is expected during the day Friday, however this cold front is rather weak.  With low dew points and a weak temperature gradient across the front, we will not lose too much heat and will see no precipitation.  Late Friday night will see the return of cloud cover over the area.  These clouds will move in after peak diurnal cooling, and thus our low for Friday night will remain around 60.  Saturday will be mostly cloudy, with clouds building ahead of a surface low based in western South Dakota. GFS indicates this low will turn to be moving in a primarily southerly direction, with no frontal passages expected.  As the low passes to our west heading south, it will eventually begin to stall, setting up a stationary front just to our west/southwest.  This front will hang around for most of Saturday night, before heading northeast as a warm front.  We will see warm frontal passage Sunday, and with it our only chance of precipitation during the forecast period.  Current guidance indicates showers being the primary form of precipitation, however this may change.  Possibility for thunderstorms is not out of the question. 

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