Friday, September 6, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Friday Night - Becoming Cloudy. Low: 58-62


Saturday - Becoming partly cloudy. High: 78-82


Saturday Night - Becoming cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms beginning after midnight. Breezy. Low: 62-66

Sunday - Cloudy skies partially clearing in the afternoon. Rain ending before noon. High: 80-84

Monday - Partly cloudy skies. Breezy. High: 84-88

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Game day is tomorrow here in Columbia, and we will see some nice weather for it. A cold front will pass through Friday afternoon, knocking down our temperatures only slightly, but will really get rid of this humidity. Partly cloudy skies with a high in the low 80s for game time. Chances for rain will move after midnight early Sunday morning, but will clear out before noon. Skies could clear up partially in the afternoon and allow temperatures to climb back up into the lower 80s. Monday the heat and humidity make a return.
Forecasters: Travis
Issued:  2:45 p.m. ; September 6, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
After a quiet past several days, a slightly more active pattern is shaping up across the Midwest this weekend. The main issue of the forecast period will be both sky conditions and its effect on daytime highs, and the chance for showers Saturday night into Sunday morning. Went primarily with the 12z GFS and NAM as per WPC's recommendation of a general model blend. Did consult both SREF and GEFS for temperatures.

WPC 15z surface analysis depicts a CF right above Columbia, MO stretching from Lake Michigan all the way into the Plains States. After FROPA temperatures should drop slightly moving into Saturday, but the real effect it will have will be on the dew points. Current dew points at Sanborn Field as of 19z, Friday, sit at 69 F. Behind the front and up into Iowa, moisture drops off with dew points only in the low 60s. Drier air will infiltrate mid-Missouri tonight into tomorrow making for much more comfortable temperatures. GFS and NAM soundings show a backing profile of the winds after 18z, but seeing as temperatures at Sanborn are still rising, progression of the front has most likely slowed.

Saturday night, clouds move in according to GFS and NAM soundings. Both models depict a saturated layer aloft with a large dry layer slowly eroding as the night progresses. Rain and thunderstorm chances will be entirely dependent on how much evaporation will be able to help chip away at that dry layer. GFS wants a fully saturated column by 04z on Sunday with enough lift to support precipitation. NAM is slightly slower to full saturation. Nevertheless expect rain very early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE ~800 J/kg, would not be surprised to see thunder associated with the line of showers rolling in. This is all associated with a small S/W with several vorticity maxima associated with it, moving east from KS. Looking at GFS 850-hPa hgts temps and wind, the LLJ maximizes off to our east, but will help advect moisture into Missouri. The soundings also depict winds in excess of 20kts at the surface, so windy conditions are possible.

Sunday, widespread rain clears out of the forecast area leaving behind potential lingering showers, more isolated in nature. Soundings indicate a thick layer of mid-level to upper-level clouds from 200 hPa to 500 hPa sticking around for the majority of the day. The sun may have a chance to poke through later in the afternoon as the saturated layer aloft thins out. 

 On Monday, Winds at 850 hPa strengthen out of the southwest. WAA will be on the increase and Columbia will see the return of hot, humid air. GEFS is pointing to temperatures in the low 90s for Monday while SREF trends slightly cooler in the mid to upper 80s. Regardless combined with the moisture advection, Monday will be very uncomfortable. Soundings suggest winds at 850 hPa will be able to mix down to the surface, so the only relief may be breezy conditions.

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