Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy.  Isolated showers ending after sundown.  Low: 72-76
Thursday - Clouds building in, with storms in the evening.          
High: 86-90
Thursday Night - Rain and storms, clearing after midnight. 
Low: 66-70
Friday - Cloudy in the morning, leading to mostly clear in the afternoon.  High: 76-80
Saturday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 78-82

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Columbia continues to see muggy conditions, with heat index values in the mid 90s.  Along with these muggy conditions, the chance for a few isolated showers remains into the evening.  We will continue to see these muggy conditions through tomorrow evening, at which point we will get some relief from the humidity in the form of a cold front.  This cold front will bring a line of storms through Columbia, which has the potential for damaging winds.  Friday morning will see clouds in the area, however these will be moving off to the east, and should be mostly cleared out in the afternoon.  Temperatures Friday will remain lower than the previous week, along with significantly lower dew points, leading to less muggy conditions outdoors.  Saturday will see the return of high dew points and muggy conditions.
Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  3:00 p.m. ; September 11, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Current WPC guidance indicates good resolution of the low in the Northern Plains, and thus the model of choice will be the 12Z GFS, with supplementary use from the 18Z HRRR and 15Z SREF.  Tonight will once again see the possibility of pulse storms in the area.  Current GOES imaging shows the Cu field stretching across Missouri is fairly dormant, however there does appear to be some Cu along the Missouri-Arkansas border agitating.  18Z HRRR is currently keeping these pulse storms primarily to the south, however it appears a few cells may try to pop up near Columbia.  Tonight will see still warm temperatures with high dewpoints, leading to muggy and unpleasant conditions.  Thursday will see clouds building in during the day, with cold frontal passage in the evening.  This cold front will be attached to a low based in the Upper Mississippi Valley as it moves off to the east.  Recent runs of the GFS have slowed down the cold front, pushing it through a little before midnight.  The 18Z HRRR is in good agreement with this time frame.  The main threat from these storms for Columbia will be the threat of severe winds, however the setup is fairly marginal.  12Z GFS soundings from Thursday afternoon indicate DCAPE values approaching 850  J/kg.  This isn't particularly great, however there is a threat of damaging winds.  SPC Day 2 currently places us in the marginal risk area, which seems reasonable given current guidance.  Thursday night will see rain clearing out after the cold front passes, with cloud cover remaining in the area until Friday.  Friday will see much lower dew points, and a fair bit cooler temperatures.  Columbia will finally start to see average temperatures for September, leading to a rather nice day in the afternoon Friday.  Muggy conditions will soon return on Saturday, as we set up in a nice area of WAA between a surface low to our west and a surface high to our east.  This setup will put us back in a warming pattern, and bring moisture back into the area.  12Z GFS indicates dew points returning back to the low 70s on Saturday once again. 

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