Thursday, September 26, 2019

Thursday - Mostly Sunny. High: 74-78

Thursday Night- Clouds roll in, partly Cloudy. Low: 63-67

Friday - AM clouds/PM of rain. High: 84-88

Friday Night - Clouds with a possibility of showers. Low: 64-68

Saturday - Periods of rain.  High: 78-82

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Thursday will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70's. As we move into the overnight, clouds will be moving in giving us partly cloudy sky conditions with lows in the mid 60's. The clouds will continue into Friday with PM showers possible, highs will be in the uppers 80's.  Friday night the clouds there will be a possibility of showers with lows in the mid 60's. Saturday will have scattered rain with highs in the upper 70's/ low 80's.
Forecasters:   Farr, Gallahan, Savoy, Pauley, and Munley
Issued:  10:00 a.m. ; September 26,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
This morning the WPC recommends the 12Z ECMWF and GEFS ensembles but we are using the GFS and the GEFS ensembles for this forecast shift.  

We start off Thursday morning with a few passer-by high clouds.  Today will be another nice day weather wise for Mizzou with temperatures reaching into the upper 70s to low 80s 06Z GFS deterministic soundings do indicate some clearing throughout the day but a but do maintain some upper level moisture to give us high clouds throughout the day as well.  A high pressure system that is centered over the Nebraska/Kansas/Missouri boarder will be passing through the area today but will also bring us the nice weather we will see today as well  High pressure moves off to the east during the day today.  Overnight tonight a wind shift will move to more of a southerly/southwesterly direction will occur later this afternoon/early evening.  With the LLJ overhead and wind speeds at 30-40kts at times at 850mb does indicate a breezy night tonight and during the day tomorrow as well, winds at 10-15mph overnight and gusting as high as 25mph.  A warm front will ramp up our temperatures around the area for Friday and could top out in the mid to upper 80s and provide warm air advection through the column for most of the day.  Instability is epected to build ahead of a cold front will be moving through the area Friday afternoon.  The combination of the cold front and a upper level short wave, instability is expected to increase throughout the day could us CAPE values ranging from 2500-3300 J/kg.  The concern for any severe weather is still uncertain, cloud cover may be a concern for tomorrow that could inhibit an severe weather but showers and storms are expected to form over the area tomorrow during the late afternoon/early evening hours, any severe potential is for hail and damaging straight line winds.  The aforementioned cold front passes through it is expected to slow and almost stall over Mid-Missouri, giving us the possibility for scattered rain all day Saturday. 

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