Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday Night: A few showers possible after midnight. Low: 56
Friday: A few showers possible, otherwise mostly cloudy. High: 69
Friday Night: A slight chance of a rain shower. Low: 57
Saturday: Isolated thunderstorms. High:86
Saturday Night: A few showers possible overnight. Low:65
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Discussion:
Clouds will be overhead for most of our Friday with a slight chance of a rain shower. High temperatures Friday afternoon will be a couple of degrees below average (avg. high 75), but temperatures will be on rise as we progress further into the weekend. High temperatures on Saturday should get into the upper 80s, so be sure to get out and enjoy the warmth!
-McCormack
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Forecasters: Easter, McCormack, Macko
Date Issued: 5/04/2023 5:00 PM CDT
Technical Discussion:
The main focus of this forecast is the potential for incoming precipitation Thursday night, as well as the potential for thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon. Due to significant model disagreement on temperatures, rain fall totals, and the location of tonight's system, a blend of the NAM and GFS was used for this forecast period. The NAM showed the cloud cover for Friday sticking around after 12Z resolving cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, the GFS is resolving more southerly winds and cloud cover dispersing in the afternoon, thus predicting temperatures in the mid 70's.
In the upper levels, the low-pressure system over the Great Lakes continues to push off to the east allowing for ridging to move in from the west. A surface low over Kansas and Colorado will be funneling some upper level divergence into southern MO Thursday night which will influence showers. Upper-level flow will remain relatively zonal through the remainder of the forecast period
Vorticity will be in place for Thursday night and Friday morning. The vorticity is associated with two shortwaves that will provide forcing for any precipitation that might fall during that time period. Moisture does not infiltrate the region until Friday 00Z. At this time, the majority of the moisture at 700mb will be confined to southern MO, 850mb moisture does not align with moisture aloft until Friday at 06Z. At this time we may experience a brief shower or sprinkle but the moisture at 700mb is sparse, any rainfall that occurs will need to overcome the dry air. Accumulation totals will be on the lighter end and remain under 0.05 inches.
Saturday afternoon thunderstorm development is looking conditional for us here in mid-Missouri. For Saturday at 21Z GFS model soundings show surface CAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Despite ample CAPE values and the presence of the LLJ, the region has significant capping in place as well as very little moisture to support the formation of thunderstorms. There is still much uncertainty with this event as NAM soundings show even less moisture entering the area. GFS soundings show a surface temperature in the upper 80s, while the NAM has a much cooler surface temperature in the mid 70s.Conditions could change quickly if the LLJ advects more moisture into the region and temperatures grow warm enough to break the cap. If that occurs we could see the development of a few isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. As of right now no precipitation is expected for Saturday.
-Easter
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