Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

 

Monday Night: Clear. Low: 40

Tuesday: Sunny, windy with wind gusts 35-40 mph. High: 65

Tuesday Night: Clear. Low: 40 

Wednesday: Sunny, breezy in the morning. Gusts 25-30 mph. High: 67

Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45

 

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Discussion: As we power through the final week of classes, the weather can be one thing you don't have to worry about. Temperatures will remain consistent reaching into the upper 60's and lows in the 40's. The only defining weather feature for this week is wind. Windy conditions will persist through Wednesday morning so maybe hold off on trying out that new hairdo!

-Russell

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Forecasters:

Date Issued: 05/May/2023 5:00 PM CDT

Technical Discussion: 

Wind is the main story this week as a large long wave trough is parked off over portions of the Great Lakes bringing us repetitive temperatures and persistent winds out of the NW. Both the GFS and NAM models were taken into consideration when making this discussion as they both had a good handle of surface winds, and our observed conditions. 

A large high pressure developing over southern Greenland is serving as a block for the upper level pattern across the entirety of the Northern hemisphere. Thus, two regions of low pressure are locked in place across CONUS with one across the NE near the Great Lakes and one parked on the coast of California. This is created a unique pattern often referred to as the Omega blocking pattern due to it appearing as as the Greek letter Omega. 

Tonight through Tuesday, the trough parked to our east will have a gradual eastward shift placing us in a more stout NW flow with the developing ridge across the west continuing to influence the region. Due to the depth of the low across the Great lakes causing a fairly tight pressure gradient across the Central United states, surface winds will remain gusty with widespread gusts upwards of 40 mph possible. Due to the size of the LW trough to the NE, there will be several shortwaves that rotate around the outer circulation, however, the lack of moisture in the mid and low levels meaning nothing in the way of precipitation is expected. At most, a small wind shift to a more northerly direction is possible which will prevent us from getting much warmer than Monday. As we move into the night, we start to see some more areas of upper-level divergence as the ridging that is building off to the west begins to move more into the region. This may promote some upper-level clouds but precipitation is no expected thanks to continued dry air in the low and mid levels.

 

Wednesday into Wednesday Night will feature a very similar situation. We will see a slight movement in the overall pattern to the east but keeping us in the NW flow. We will luckily be getting a break from the gusty conditions, primarily as we go into Wednesday afternoon thanks to the weakening of the low pressure across the NE and the broadening of the pressure gradient across the area. That being said, some breezy conditions are possible but gusts should remain under 30 mph. Temperatures will be warmer when compared to Tuesday, that is thanks to the decrease in NW winds but also as the ridging move further into the state. 

Future forecaster to note the strengthening of the upper-level jet stream as the ridging continued to push into the area. Current modeling is picking up on a weak SW propagating with the Jet, this brings the potential for some much needed rainfall across the area. Due to the overall stagnant pattern, there is some potential this disturbance will produce heavy rainfall and is something that should be closely monitored.

Signing off for the final time

-Russell, Shaw