Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 70
Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 45
Thursday: Sunny in the morning, clouds begin to build in during the afternoon. High: 75
Thursday Night: Rain throughout the night. Low: 56.
Friday: Partly Sunny. High: 67
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Discussion:
Missouri will continue to have pleasant weather on Wednesday with sunshine and a high in the low 70s. Thursday, however, clouds begin to move into mid-Missouri ahead of the rain coming overnight Thursday. Light rain will begin Thursday evening before ramping up in the early morning hours of Friday. Increased forcing in the mid-levels will produce the heaviest rain between 3:00-7:00AM CST. The rain will then slow cease midday Friday.
-Ritsema
Forecasters: Ritsema, Clark, Cochran
Date Issued: 5/03/2023 10:00 AM CDT
This forecast was based on the outputs of the GFS. The NAM was not used due to the inaccuracy of Tuesday night temperatures. The 00z and 06z NAM was off by 10 degrees on the low temperatures, whereas the GFS was within three degrees.
Missouri continues to be influenced by the low pressure system over the Great Lakes. Northwesterly flow persists throughout Wednesday, before a ridge moves into the area. Winds will then shift to a westerly component for the rest of the forecast period. Around Friday 03z, a shortwave propagates into Missouri, bringing with it divergence aloft, and thus, convergence at the surface. This shortwave is more prominent at the mid-level where a low can be seen passing over north-central Missouri. Circulation exists with this low over mid-Missouri and vorticity max can be seen Friday 09z-18z.
The 700 mb level portrays a closed circulation over north central Missouri on Friday. This level becomes saturated around 18z on Thursday and remains saturated until Friday 21z. To the southeast, a boundary exists in which winds shift to the west. Along this boundary, elevated omega values will influence heavier precipitation.
Lower, at 850 mb, the low pressure system is still present in north central Missouri. It induces a low-level jet bringing in a warm moist airmass to the central Plains and Mississippi Valley. This can be seen with the elongated moisture transport vectors in a majority of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and sourthern Missouri. This level reaches saturation on Friday at 03z and that moisture sticks around the whole day. Warm air advection allows for this moisture and warmer air to rise and aid in the production of precipitation that is expected overnight Thursday into Friday morning.
The surface presents a slightly different story where the low tracks into southern Missouri, lagging behind the mid-levels. Saturation at this level occurs at 03z on Friday. It is about at this time where the precipitation will begin to ramp up, max out at 12z Friday, and cease Friday afternoon. PWAT values exceed 1.25 inches starting at 03z Friday ending Saturaday 00z. Accumulation being forecasted is around .5 inches.
-Ritsema
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