Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday - Partly Cloudy. Windy. High: 68-72
Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 54-58
Friday - Cloudy. High: 58-62
Friday Night - Scattered Showers. Low: 44-48
Saturday - Cloudy. Rain continuing throughout the day. High: 48-52
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Discussion:
Thursday will be relatively nice. We will experience much warmer temperatures than we have been this week. With strong winds pulling Gulf moisture into our area ahead of a cold front. Due to that cold front, Friday will be much colder than Thursday. After the front moves in, we will have winds out of the northwest and a continuation of today's partly cloudy skies with chances of rain increasing throughout the day. The rain will peak in the early morning hours of Saturday just after sunrise. Though no storms are expected, Saturday will see rain for most of the day.
Forecaster: Ede, Gasch, Sumrall
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 19 November 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The focus for this forecast period is a frontal passage and rain moving into the region Friday night into Saturday morning. SREF and GEFS plumes were used to forecast temperatures, and the GFS was primarily used to forecast timing. Shorter range products such as the NAM were used to verify this forecast.
Starting in the upper levels, the ridge that has been over Missouri will move eastward, which will allow for the unsettled weather this weekend to move in. Towards the end of the weekend, a trough will move through.
Going down through the atmosphere, at 850 mb, there is a strong low level jet over Missouri today. This will be the cause of the strong winds that will be experienced today with gusts upwards of 40 knots. The jet will weaken throughout this forecast period, but that is what is going to provide the moisture for this weekend's rain.
Friday, a cold front will be entering the area with increased cloud cover. Winds will become northerly, causing temperatures to be cooler than today. Fog is a possibility in the morning with relative humidity values of more than 90%. Soundings from the GFS show complete saturation up through 850 mb. As the day progresses, upper level moisture increases, bringing the chances for rain up, as well. This rain will be scattered throughout the afternoon and be relatively light.
This weekend, there is no significant convection expected due to a lack of vorticity, so thunderstorms are not expected. The rain we do get will be steady. The front will stall on Friday, giving Missouri the best chances for rain Friday night into Saturday.
Looking at a cross section analysis, the atmosphere is completely saturated, indicating rain will last throughout the entire day on Saturday. The heaviest rain of the weekend will occur mid-morning through late afternoon on Saturday. Strong vertical motion will promote the development of strong showers in the afternoon. The front will get moving late Saturday evening and take the moisture with it. Rain should wrap up early Sunday morning.
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