Thursday Night - Cloudy skies. Low: 32-36
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Tonight will be cold and cloudy, as there are still some impacts from the front that has passed to the east of the Columbia area. Friday will be nice as conditions start to improve. However, that will not last as another front from the Rockies will move through mid-Missouri and bring potential snow late Friday night into Saturday morning, but do not expect this to stick due to warm ground temperatures. This front will move out of Central Missouri and fair conditions will return by Sunday.
Forecasters: Owens, Bongard
Issued: 1500: November 21, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The current model of choice is a combination of the SREF, HREF, SREF Plums and NAM Skew-ts.
Conditions through Friday afternoon are primarily being influenced by the FROPA that has occurred during the prior forecast period. While there is some cloud cover remaining post cold front these are currently tracking to the East of the Columbia region. As such there will be weak high-pressure dominating the region and conditions will temporarily become fair.
For Friday night into Saturday morning, conditions will deteriorate. Currently, the SREF and HREF are progging that a Colorado Low will form along the Rocky Mountains. Right now the models are progging the first impacts of this moving into the region on late Friday night. Currently, NAM Skew-t is showing the conditions Friday night to be relatively dry in the lower levels, and RH values in the 90% at 700mb. As precipitation falls from this system, the lower levels will become more saturated and cooler. At 0300Z on Saturday the temperature becomes less than 0 degrees and the column is saturated up to the 500mb level. While these conditions still need to be monitored, there is a possibility of snow.
SREF and HREF are still progging the Colorado Low to move out of the central Missouri region on late Saturday afternoon. Once the system moves to the East Saturday evening then conditions will revert back to Thursday/Friday as fair weather.