Friday, November 22, 2019

Friday Night - Cloudy skies with isolated showers . Low 30-34 

Saturday- Partly Cloudy. High: 44-48 
Saturday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 28-32
Sunday - Partly Cloudy.  High: 52-56

Monday -  Partly Cloudy.  High: 52-56

Thanks to for the icons!

A low pressure system passes through Missouri Saturday morning bringing with it colder temperatures.  By Sunday, we are no longer under the influence of this system and our temperatures for this weekend are at its highest.  We expect similar temperatures to persist into Monday as well.   
Forecasters: Balkissoon, Travis, Heaven, Munley
Issued:  5pm, November 22, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

From 250hPa winds we observe there is a 250mb low pressure system coming in from the West of Missouri.  We sit on the trough of this system on Saturday at 12Z.  Looking at lower levels of the atmosphere, we see that from the 500hPa vorticity, there is associated areas of max circulation from Saturday 3Z to Sunday 3Z. Looking at the RH map at 700hPa, even though we see high values of RH associated with this system throughout Missouri, in Columbia there is significant vertical motion seen around Saturday 0Z; this is when we expect precipitation.

This is confirmed using the GFS sounding which showed a saturated atmosphere from 3am to 9am on Saturday.  We expect under a quarter of an inch of rainfall.  From the NAM run, the skew-t analysis showed similar characteristics indicative of precipitation at the aforementioned time.  On the early hours on Sunday however, the soundings generated by the NAM indicate that we are expecting fog.

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