Tuesday, November 5, 2019

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 50-54

Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Increasing Clouds in the Morning. High: 56-60

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with Light Rain. Low:  32-36


Thursday - Cloudy with rain ending in the morning. Clouds clearing out in the afternoon. High: 36-40

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Today will be a sunny day with temps around average in the 50s. Tonight, winds remain calm with clear skies overnight. We will then see clouds begin to move in Wednesday morning and the possibility for rain will increase throughout the day. We expect the best chance of rain Wednesday night as a cold front approaches and moves through overnight. Thursday the clouds will start to move out of the area and we should be sunny by the afternoon.
Forecasters: Farr, Gallahan, Munley, Steward
Issued:  10:00am: November 5, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  

Current satellite and observations show clear skies with temperatures in the mid 40s. The model preference via the WPC is a general model blend of GFS and NAM. The current synoptic feature is the dominating upperlevel convergence supporting a 1029mb high pressure at the surface over the central plains as seen on the 06Z GFS.  Subsidence associated with this feature will continue to provide clear skies through this evening into tonight with warm temperatures due unperturbed solar radiation. An upper level disturbance off the Baja Peninsula will begin to deepen and move over southwestern CONUS supporting moisture transport from the pacific through southern CONUS. Most of the energy associated with this system will remain south of the forecasted area with predominately zonal flow at the 500mb suppressing the northward ascension resulting in increasing clouds.  However, a deep trough will move over the area Wednesday night with periods of light rain from residual moisture advection from the southern system. This will cease Thursday morning as the cold front passes followed by high pressure building in to decrease cloud coverage through mid afternoon Thursday. CAA will continue through Thursday as northwesterly winds remains through the day.

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