Friday, November 8, 2019

Friday Night - Clear Skies, 30-34

Saturday - Partly Cloudy, 56-60 

Saturday Night - Clear Skies, 40-44

Sunday - Overcast, 54-58 

Monday - Overcast. Rain transitioning to snow , 34-38

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For Friday and Saturday,  we get warmer temperatures and clear skies for the most part as we are not affected by a low pressure system north of us in Manitoba and Ontario.  However as we progress into Monday, we are affected by this system.  Our temperature drop bring chances of rain and snow in Monday.  Accumulations of a dusting to a quarter of an inch are possible.  Thus be sure to dress warm. 

Forecasters: Balkissoon, Heaven, Travis
Issued:  5:30. November 8, 2019.

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

This forecast will include GFS and NAM model runs, GFS Skew-Ts and SREF for temperature values and GEFS for accumulative precipitation amounts. The WPC indicates a model blend of ECMWF and GFS are favoured to give better results through Sunday to Monday. 

Temperatures for Friday saw a high of only 41 degrees as recorded at Sanborn Field. This will not be the case going forward into the weekend as 850-hPa winds shift out of the SW and WAA will ensue. This is supported by the GFS map of MSLP and 1000-500 hPa thickness. Solenoids of WAA are plentiful as the higher thickness contours push northward throughout the weekend.

When looking at the 250-hPa map, we see that the jet is located north of us on Saturday.  The atmosphere is not expected to be saturated as there is no significant percentages of RH at 700 hPa.  This is also verified from the Skew-T analysis.  As such our weekend  is expected to be dry and relatively inactive.  However, as the low pressure system sitting north of us in Manitoba and Ontario deepens, we see atmospheric conditions conducive for precipitation on Monday.  Around 12Z on Monday, we see decent upper level divergence overhead.  This is coupled with high values of RH for most of Missouri and a large upward motion of 12 micro-bars per second from the 700-hPa level.  From the Skew-T around this period, 3Z to 9Z, the atmosphere is saturated, rain is expected and from 12Z to 18Z, this is expected to transition to snow.   We see from the Skew-T a temperature inversion, a moist atmosphere and the air parcel throughout the column of the atmosphere remains below freezing indicative of snow.  

The NAM is currently indicating that the main axis of heaviest precipitation will be primarily to our south, however Columbia will still see QPF of around .05 inches.  However, we see from the GFS, that throughout Missouri, snow totals is expected to be in the range of 0.1 and 0.25 inches.

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