Monday, November 4, 2019

Monday - Overcast. High: 52-56

Monday Night- Partly Cloudy, becoming clear. Low: 36-40

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 50-54

Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 36-40

Wednesday- Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

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A cold front is off to our northwest, but it is relatively weak and lacks moisture. However, there is enough moisture above us for cloud cover. That will move out of Columbia tonight as high pressure sets in. This allows for overnight cooling and slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, but the sun will make an appearance. The high pressure system will move to our east, allowing for southerly winds to warm us up on Wednesday.
Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, Hirsch
Issued:  10:00 am; November 4,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
This weekend was generally uneventful. A tight pressure gradient allowed for stronger winds; they were out of the south which funneled in moisture this morning. A cold front is just off to our northwest and will pass through Columbia within the next few hours. Although, it is a dry front (looking at station plots from those to our northwest lacking precipitation associated with this front), moisture aloft will allow for cloud cover today. We primarily used the GFS for our forecast period.

High pressure dominates Tuesday and Wednesday. Tomorrow, this pressure system will be over central Kansas bringing northerly winds to central Missouri. This combined with the cloud cover from today and clear skies tonight suggests a slightly cooler high temperature for tomorrow. Tomorrow night, we would first think that temperatures would be cooler due to it being the first clear night after FROPA, but the high pressure system will shift to our east, funneling in southerly air and soundings suggest WAA tomorrow night at 06Z. This will also increase our temperatures on Wednesday, but as the pressure system moves further to the east, we begin to lose its impacts. Moisture from the Gulf begins to set in thanks to more southerly flow. For the interest of our forecast period, this will affect cloud cover on Wednesday. Future forecasters will need to follow up with precipitation possibilities Wednesday night into Thursday.

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