Friday, November 1, 2019

Friday Night - Clear Skies. Lows: 30-34 degrees.

Saturday- Clear. High: 46-50 degrees.

Saturday Night - Clear. Low: 32-36 degrees. 

Sunday -Partly cloudy. High: 52-56 degrees.

Monday- Cloudy. High: 56-60 degrees.

Thanks to for the icons!

This weekend will be relatively inactive.  We expect clear skies for most of weekend.  We are not significantly affected by the passage of a low pressure system north of Missouri.  Temperatures are expected to increase to the end of forecaster period  due to the passage of a high pressure system to the east.
Forecasters: Heaven,Travis, Balkissoon
Issued:  3:00 pm; November 1,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 
We will be primarily using the 12Z GFS for the analysis however, we cross checked with the NAM which showed good agreement with the GFS.  The SREF will be used primarily for temperatures.

From the analysis of the 250hPa map, throughout the weekend, we are under the influence of the upper level jet.  We see regions of circulation north of Missouri in conjunction with the passage of a low pressure system over Ontario. This system is stacked N-W which indicates intensification. From the 700 hPa RH map, there are conditions conducive for cloud formation on Monday, as we note 70% RH around 9Z.  This is also in agreement when we looked at the GFS Skew-T.  We note mid to upper level clouds around 6 to 9 km up around Sunday 12Z and mid level clouds Monday 6Z.  Throughout Monday 9Z to 21Z, it is expected to be cloudy.  For the total precipitation amounts from both NAM and GFS, over the weekend, we expect traces of precip over Northern Missouri.  However, this will not be applicable for Columbia. 

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