Monday, November 11, 2019

Monday - Overcast. Snow until afternoon. Afternoon high: 24-28

Monday Night - Clear. Low: 10-14

 Tuesday - Clear. High: 24-28

Tuesday Night - Mostly clear. Low: 14-18

Wednesday - Partly cloudy. High: 38-42

Thanks to for the icons!

A cold front passed through on Sunday but the precipitation associated with it did not begin until this morning. The front brought a wintery mix that transitioned into snow once the temperature dipped below freezing. This snow will continue until the afternoon and then moisture will move out and precipitation will stop. Accumulation will total between 1-2". The lack of moisture will mean that tonight and tomorrow will have clear skies. Temperatures will continue to drop and be unseasonably cold. We begin a warming trend going into Wednesday.

Forecasters: Clemons, Lieberman, Hirsch
Issued:  10 am, November 11, 2019.

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
At the 250mb level, the jet max is located above the Great Lakes. This puts Columbia in the right entrance region, ideal for divergence aloft. FROPA occurred yesterday at around 15Z but the lack of moisture meant that precipitation did not begin until this morning when clouds brought in the required moisture. Associated with the cold front is a low pressure system off to the East of Columbia. This puts us on the backside of a low allowing for Northerly winds. We are also under a tight pressure gradient, allowing for winds of higher speed. There are also solenoids over the greater Missouri area, ideal for CAA. Model soundings at 12Z this morning show backing winds that support CAA. Our main concerns for this forecast period are when precipitation will stop and how much snow will accumulate until then. Model soundings suggest saturation from the surface all the way up until the 600mb level. Temperatures from the surface up are below freezing. This eliminates the possibility for any p-type besides snow. The HRRR and RAP suggest that snow will halt around 22Z and accumulations will total 1-2". This is because the moisture in the area will be depleted and northerly winds will bring in only dry air. Then high pressure will set in and dominate the rest of our forecast period.

A general model blend suggests tonight will be the first full clear night after cold FROPA. This means that radiational cooling will result in unseasonably cold temperatures. SREF Plumes suggest temperatures in the lower teens with windchill in the single digits. From now until tonight, FROPA means that temperature will continue to decrease steadily. Tomorrow, clear skies mean that solar heating will warm the surface slightly but high temperatures will still remain below freezing. However, the ground temperature is currently 4 degrees Celsius and is unlikely to drop below freezing. Meaning that the majority of snow will melt before Tuesday night. Moisture will begin to return Tuesday night into Wednesday in the form of cloud cover. A high pressure system over the Ohio River Valley will bring in Southerly winds and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for considerable warming from Tuesday into Wednesday.

No comments:

Post a Comment