Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Wednesday - Partly Cloudy, with clouds increasing through the day. High: 50-54

Wednesday Night - Cloudy with Light Rain. Low:  28-32

Thursday - Cloudy with rain ending in the morning. Clouds clearing out in the afternoon. High: 36-40

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22

Friday - Partly cloudy. High: 38-42

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Today will see the last day of relatively warm temperatures in the forecast.  Southerly winds will keep our temperatures somewhat higher, but cloud cover will keep them from being exceptionally high.  Temperatures are expected to drop due to the passage of a cold front around midnight.  Minimal rain is expected with this cold front, with the main threat of rain being from light showers.  Thursday will start to see clouds clearing out after the morning, and temperatures will stay down due to winds out of the north.  Thursday night is expected to be exceptionally cold, with temperatures dropping into the low 20s due to clear skies and northerly winds.  Friday will see spotty cloud cover, and winds switch to out of the south.
Forecasters: Heaven
Issued:  9:15 a.m. November 6, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  
WPC model diagnostics recommends a general model blend, and the forecast will be made primarily using the GFS.  The SREF will be used for temperature forecasting. 

Current surface analysis shows Columbia in WAA on the backside of the surface high now based over southern Indiana.  SkewTs indicate clouds will start building in ahead of the front, rendering us cloudy for most of the day.  Frontal passage is expected around midnight.  Some precipitation is expected, however it appears the main axis for precipitation is now well off to our south.  We will still get some precipitation, but it seems as if it it will be quite light.  Winter precipitation seems quite unlikely at this point, as soundings drop below freezing only after all saturation has disappeared.  Thus, no wintry precipitation has been put into the forecast.  This can be adjusted 1 more time in the afternoon forecast, however previous forecasts have been quite consistent in ruling out wintry precipitation. 

Thursday morning will see the end of rain.  Columbia will start off cloudy, but will transition to mostly clear by 21Z.  CAA will continue into the area as we are post-frontal.  There is also a surface based high located over Nebraska which will be helping to bring more cold air into the area.  This setup will prove to be quite effective at lowering temperatures, especially Thursday night.  Between no cloud cover and fairly strong CAA, the currently forecasted low for Thursday night is the high teens- low 20s.  This point is by far the coldest period in the forecast, and it seems that we will recover from these low temps quite quickly, as the surface high to our northwest tracks to our northeast. 

Friday will start to see a shift in the winds as we get on the backside of the surface high, with winds starting to come out of the south.  There will be some WAA, however it is somewhat weak, only bringing us into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Cloud cover seems intermittent, with soundings indicating saturation and loss of said saturation happening at various points throughout the day.

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