Friday, November 22, 2019

Friday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 40-44
Friday Night - Mostly Cloudy with possible overnight mixed precipitation. Low 30-34 

Saturday- Mostly Cloudy. High: 44-48 
Saturday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 28-32
Sunday - Mostly Cloudy. High: 52-56

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Today will be breezy and chilly in the wake of the cold front that passed through the area yesterday. Another weak cold front will pass through the area tonight. We could see trace amounts of mixed precipitation, however it should have little impact on Saturday plans. Clouds persist throughout the weekend, with Sunday being the warmer day.
Forecasters: Est, Taylor, Sumrall
Issued:  10am, November 22, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

Today, conditions behind the frontal passage remain cool and cloudy. Tonight, another system will impact the area. A positively tilted, vertically stacked trough will move through around 00Z Saturday. This positive tilt indicates that this is a weaker system which is evident as a drastic temperature change is not present.  Precipitation with this system is minimal at best due to lack of moisture and a substantial dry layer close to the surface.

There is a lack of model consensus when it comes to the amount of available moisture for this system. Skew-T analysis shows NAM is supporting the presence of more moisture reaching the surface, whereas the GFS is outputting less available moisture and significant dry layers at the lower levels. It is the presence of this dry layer and evaporation that leads us to believe that precipitation at the surface will be minimal.

The rest of the weekend will feature cooler and cloudy conditions, but will remain fairly calm ahead of the next system that is set to impact Missouri at the beginning of next week.

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