Monday, November 4, 2019

Monday Night - Cloudy, becoming clear. Low: 34-38
Tuesday - Sunny. High: 50-54
Tuesday Night - Mostly Clear. Low: 36-40

Wednesday - Mostly sunny. High: 56-60

Thursday - Cloudy with morning rain. Clouds clearing out later. High: 36-40

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A cold front passed over Mid-Missouri today bringing cooler temperatures and cloudy skies. Those clouds will hang around the area tonight and we will have a low in the mid 30's. Tomorrow, those clouds will clear out and we will have sunny skies and highs in the lower 50's. Those clear skies will remain Tuesday night  with a low in the upper 30's and will continue into Wednesday with a high in the upper 50's. Another cold front will pass through our area again Wednesday night and into Thursday morning bringing clouds and rain and dropping our temperatures on Thursday to the upper 30's.
Forecasters: Hatch, Heaven, Travis, Munley
Issued:  5:00 pm; November 4,  2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  

The 12Z GFS was used for this forecast. WPC recommends general model blend. There was a cold front that passed over Mid-Missouri today bringing cloudy skies, light rain, and cooler temperatures. Today, the temperature maxed out cooler than expected due to cold air advection. Skew-T's suggest that the clouds will remain overhead tonight before clearing out tomorrow.

 Tomorrow and Wednesday, we will be under the influence of high pressure over Kansas which will be funneling northern winds towards us. The 1000-500 hPa Thickness also is indicating cold air advection over central Missouri Tuesday and Wednesday. However, this system set up will have southerly flow for tomorrow night which will bring in warm, moist air from the Gulf due to a brief period of warm air advection tomorrow night around 06Z. This will affect cloud cover Wednesday and give us our moisture for the frontal passage Wednesday night and into Thursday.

The high pressure influence will move out toward the east Wednesday night, and will be replaced by a low pressure system and cold front that will pass over Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  Future forecasters should be aware of potential winter precipitation on Thursday. Soundings suggest the possibility of winter precipitation such as sleet Thursday morning, however it is too far in advance to forecast in this period.

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