Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Wednesday Night - Cloudy, then skies clearing. Low: 22-26

Thursday - Sunny. High: 38-42 

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22 

Friday - Partly cloudy. High: 42-46 

Saturday - Partly cloudy. High: 44-48

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A cold front will move through the area tonight, shifting wind direction to northerly. This, paired with clearing skies will bring low temperatures to the mid 20s. Thursday, the influence of high pressure will keep high temperatures in the high 30s to low 40s. Thursday night will be exceptionally cool, with temperatures possibly dropping to the high teens. Friday, the high pressure will exert less control over the area, setting up a warming trend for the weekend with highs in the mid 40s and a southerly wind. Saturday will continue to see this trend with highs slightly higher than Friday.

Forecasters: Abruzzo, Dowell, Lujan
Issued:  5:00pm. November 13, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC indicates preference towards general model blend shifting towards GFS, and as such we will primarily be using the GFS for this forecast along with consultation with the NAM. The SREF was used for temperature forecasting.

Tonight, cold frontal passage is expected to begin overnight, shifting winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. No precipitation is expected during frontal passage. Skies will begin clearing early tonight, as GFS model soundings indicate the atmosphere becoming more dry. Clear skies coupled with cold frontal passage will dictate temperatures dropping to the low to mid twenties.

Moving into Thursday, sunny skies will be expected. There is a possibility that there will be some clouds Thursday morning, but confidence is low. A surface high located over the north-central plains will bring weak CAA throughout most of the day. While CAA will be tapering off Thursday night, it will still be bitterly cold, because skies will be clear.

Friday, the surface high will begin to weaken while also passing over the area, thus leading the way for WAA Friday afternoon. Model soundings indicate areas of near saturation between 250 and 400 hPa, causing skies to be partly cloudy. A warming trend is expected to begin on Friday as well; therefore, we shifted the high temperature up two degrees. We will be keeping up to date with this trend and will revise the forecast as necessary.

Finally on Saturday, a low located over the western central plains will continue to bring WAA to the area, thus continuing the warming trend mentioned previously. Model soundings show areas of saturation or near saturation the upper atmosphere, so skies are expected to be partly cloudy.

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