Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 38-42 
Wednesday - Increasing Clouds. High 60-64
Wednesday Night - Cloudy. Rain after midnight. Low: 50-54 
Thursday - Mostly Cloudy. Early morning rain. High: 58-62
Friday -  Cloudy. Rain late. High: 38-42

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Tuesday night will be partly cloudy as the back end of the high pressure system moves through, bringing warmer temperatures into Wednesday. A low pressure system moves in Wednesday leading to rain late into Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Clouds will continue from Thursday into Friday with a cold front moving in as temperatures drop significantly due to a high pressure system moving in.
Forecasters: Heaven, Vanderpool, Savoy, Lujan
Issued:  5:00pM. November 19, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model diagnostic discussion prefers a general model blend, excluding the 12z NAM. We will be relying on the 12z GFS, with consideration also given to the 18z HRRR and the 15z SREF.

The surface analysis at 18z 11/19 shows a surface high centered over the Midwest. Columbia is right in the middle of this high, which is contributing to light winds out of the WNW. A warm front stretched roughly from Duluth, MN to Urbana, IL. A developing low was located in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle region, with a stationary front running just east of Amarillo, TX to Pueblo, CO.

For tonight, one last calm night is expected as the sfc high shifts east. Winds will switch to the southwest towards dawn, helping to advect warm air into the region. As a result, temperatures will stay a bit warmer tonight than they have in recent nights. Tomorrow into tomorrow night, the aforementioned low in TX/OK panhandle region will develop and kick out into Kansas. A shortwave disturbance will precede this low, providing vertical lift starting late evening and early overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Ample moisture advection in combination with favorable lift will provide an excellent chance for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with qpf (as indicated by the GEFS) between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Instability does not look great at this time, but would not even rule out a rumble or two of thunder for the predawn hours Thursday morning.

On Thursday, the surface low will pass by about 400 miles to our north. Rain will move out as moisture is depleted and the dry slot moves into central MO. Cloudy skies remain on Thursday, with a cold front moving in by mid to late afternoon. The air behind the front is of a pacific origin (therefore not overly cold or dry) so temperature drop shouldn't be too extreme. Still, the front will mark a clear contrast between the much warmer temperatures of Tuesday and Wednesday. For Friday, temperatures will struggle to make it into the 40s in central MO. Model soundings support cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Another system looks to eject into the central plains by Friday afternoon and evening, which may provide our next chance of precipitation. Therefore, we have introduced a mention of rain into the forecast by Friday afternoon. Later shifts will need to keep an eye on the evolution of that system, as a few models indicate temperature profiles that may support some wintry precip nearby Friday night into Saturday morning.

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