Thursday, November 7, 2019

Thursday Night - Clear. Low: 18-22.

Friday - Sunny Skies. High: 38-42.

Friday Night - Clear Skies. Low: 26-30.

Saturday - Clouds in the Morning, transition to Clear skies in the afternoon. High: 55-59.

Sunday - Mist in the Morning. High 50-54.

Thanks to for the icons!

This weekend is looking very quiet on the weather side, with clear skies throughout most of the weekend. Temperatures will remain low through Friday, with the lowest on Thursday night of 18-22 degrees. Saturday will bring in a few clouds in the morning, however this will clear out by the afternoon providing the area with a very nice fall day. With lower temperatures and high humidity overnight, there will mist in the morning on Sunday. Mist will dissipate after sunrise with a carbon copy of Saturday's pleasant weather on Sunday.
Forecasters: Owens, Bongard
Issued:  15.00. November 7, 2019.

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)  
Currently, the upper air package is showing that there is high pressure dominating the area of responsibility, with a significant amount of dry air over north-central Missouri. This is due to the bulk of the moisture tied into the long-wave pattern, particularly to the south of the trough that has moved to the west of Sanborn Field. While this is expected to continue throughout the weekend, given the strong cold front that passed through temperatures tonight are expected to be unseasonably cold with CAA.  With this, the primary threat is tied to mist and fog on Sunday. The models of choice for the forecast, are currently the SREF, HREF, NAM/GFS Skew-T and the GFS/NAM MOS.

Currently, the SREF and HREF are showing a minor short wave trough moving to the north of Sanborn Field at the 850mb level on Saturday. Despite this high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast period. This is where the issue of a fog/mist threat does come in. Model Skew-Ts are showing a radiation inversion setting up every night over the forecast period. However, where the models are disagreeing is what direction the wind is coming from. The SREF is showing winds from 180, while the model Skew-Ts and HREF are showing winds from 210-230. With the more SW winds, this does put the Missouri River upstream of Columbia. This does cause a topographical impact bringing RH values into the 90% range. Combined with the radiation inversion and lower temperatures radiation fog/mist conditions do need to be considered. 

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