Monday, November 11, 2019

Monday Night - Clear. Low: 8-12

Tuesday - Clear. High: 24-28

Tuesday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 14-18

Wednesday - Mostly cloudy. High: 42-46

Thursday - Partly cloudy. 38-42

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A cold front that passed through last night brought a wintry mix including rain, sleet, and snow over Mid-Missouri throughout the day. This mix transitioned into snow late morning that continued until late afternoon. The total snow accumulation for Boone County was 3-4". The clouds will move out of the area tonight resulting in clear skies and a low temperature in the low teens. The cold temperatures will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night. Clouds will start to move in again Tuesday night and into Wednesday and temperatures will be a little warmer in the mid 40's. Some clouds will remain Thursday with a high in the upper 30's.

Forecasters: Hatch, Travis, Munley, Heaven
Issued:  5:00 pm, November 11, 2019.

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
The GFS and SREF was primarily used for this forecast. Today, Mid-Missouri received more than anticipated snowfall in Boone County. Because of the bit of snow melt caused by non-magnesium salt being put over the already accumulated snow, and the slush caused by automobiles on the roads; a re-freeze tonight is expected for Mid-Missouri.

Tonight will be the first clear night after the frontal passage, which typically is the coldest night after a cold frontal passage, tonight will be that night which will result in very cold low temperatures in the lower teens or upper single digits. SREF plumes suggest temperatures as low as eight degrees F. The record low for tonight is thirteen degrees, and we have a very good chance of dropping lower than that due to the clear skies and northern wind of around 10mph. GFS show clear skies will remain until Tuesday night due to the influence of a high pressure system over the Midwest.

GFS saturation indicates that clouds will move in again Tuesday night and into Wednesday due to a system to our north over Iowa, however we will not see any precipitation from it. GFS suggests that the system will move out to the east Thursday bringing the clouds with it.

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