Monday, November 18, 2019

Monday - Becoming cloudy. High: 50-54   

Monday Night - Cloudy. Slight chance for sprinkles. Low: 40-44 

Tuesday - Sunny. High: 54-58

Tuesday Night-  Clear. Low: 34-38

Wednesday - Sunny, becoming cloudy late. High: 60-64 

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A warm front is scheduled to move through Columbia midday today allowing us to be on a warming trend for the next few days. Moisture will funnel in today in the form of cloud cover with a slight chance for some sprinkles overnight--if the droplets don't evaporate before reaching the ground. Otherwise, the moisture will move to the east tomorrow allowing for clear conditions from Tuesday to Wednesday afternoon. Increased sunshine will help temperatures rise above average mid-November conditions.
Forecasters: Lieberman, Clemons, Hirsch
Issued:  10:00am.  November 18, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)
We used a general model blend for this forecast. Looking at the 250mb winds, a jet max is over the Pacific NW. Currently, we are under a trough, and this will allow for the jet to steer moisture towards us this afternoon. The jet also has a factor in steering a warm front towards us today, as well. A warm front stretching all the way from southern Canada is off to our west in eastern Kansas; FROPA will occur in Columbia around 15-18Z allowing for WAA, and moisture will allow for cloud cover this afternoon into the evening. 12Z soundings from this morning suggest saturation overnight, but a dry layer exists from the surface to 850mb. If any rain occurs tonight, it is likely to evaporate before reaching the ground. Cloud cover, however, will persist through the night. Radiational cooling will occur, but cloud cover will allow for heat to stay close to the surface and temperatures to be warmer overnight.

Moisture quickly moves out of our region tomorrow morning--this is due to the fact that our moisture was limited as it funneled in from the Pacific NW instead of the Gulf. Clear conditions persist through Tuesday both day and night. Increased sunshine allows for temperatures to increase, but clear skies overnight will allow radiational cooling to fully occur. This will cause cooler temperatures Tuesday night. Moisture looks limited on Wednesday, as well, and southerly winds and clear skies will allow us to see temperatures in the lower 60s, about 10 degrees Fahrenheit above average for Mid-November in Columbia. However, thanks to the southerly winds, moisture from the Gulf will enter Missouri. Soundings also suggested lift in the mid-troposphere. Future forecasters will need to watch for cloud cover increasing Wednesday afternoon/evening and the potential for rainfall overnight.

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