Thursday, February 14, 2019

Currently Under Winter Weather Advisory until Midnight

Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy, temperatures drop quickly Low: 20-24

Friday - Mostly cloudy with a chance for afternoon snow. High: 21-25.


Friday Night -  Snow clearing out, sky remaining cloudy Low: 13-17.

Saturday -  Mostly cloudy, chance for afternoon wintry precipitation. High: 30-34.

 Sunday - Slightly warmer and mostly sunny skies. High: 32-36

Thanks to for the icons!

Winter is not gone folks. Tonight will usher in extremely cold temperatures after a nice break earlier today of sunny skies and warmer temps. Clouds will remain consistent tonight into tomorrow morning as a cold front passes over. Tomorrow morning brings us increasing clouds and snow throughout the day staying light and keeping conditions somewhat calm. Accumulation will stay around an inch to three inches in total starting around noon and ending later on in the night. Saturday brings us a slight break in the morning through afternoon but then a good chance for light snow again later on in the evening. Clouds remain overhead through Saturday night but clear out Sunday as sunny skies shine through and temps will get above freezing.  

Forecasters: Bongard, Doll, Myers, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:04 p.m., February 14, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Temperatures are getting ready to take a turn overnight.  As a cold front passes over mid Missouri, temperatures will plummet to well below freezing with our overnight low reaching 22 degrees. This front isn't bringing in a lot of moisture with it so we expect to stay dry overnight and have a few upper level clouds build into the morning hours.  An upper level ridge will be following behind this front and will become extremely zonal overnight.  An upper level trough invading the CONUS over the Pacific Northwest will create an express highway in the upper air levels.  High winds at 250 mb will help systems for Friday and Saturday steam roll through the Midwest over the weekend. 
A winter weather advisor has been issued from 9 am to midnight for Friday for Boone County.  The morning moisture levels start out very dry. By late morning however, moisture begins to build in from the northwest with anticipation for wintry precip that we expect to see in the late afternoon.  Steady winds out of the west will help to keep our snow falling throughout the day and into late Friday night.  The zonal flow is the driving factor for the winter weather we will be seeing that developed more north and brought in this cold air mass that will settle over Missouri.  NAM has the atmosphere drying out earlier than the GFS, stating that snowfall will end around 10pm while the GFS has it continuing until around midnight.  We expect to see around an inch to three inches of snow over the course of the day tomorrow.

Saturday brings another chance for snow.  We will stay inconsistently moist on and off in the mid atmosphere.  This will keep our skies mostly cloudy throughout the day.  Ground level winds shift to be out of the southeast to southwest late Saturday which will help our temperatures rise slightly.  That trough that we anticipated early in the week will finally make it's way to Missouri as our upper level winds continue to stay extremely strong.  This trough is what's going to bring us that second chance of snow for Saturday night moving the low pressure system into mid Missouri.  As the trough moves out, we will dry out through the mid to upper level atmosphere.  Our temperatures will continue to slowly climb as we continually to have southerly flow.  Sunday will be sunny and slightly warmer than what we had seen previously this weekend.   Then we will switch back to colder weather as we see a northerly shift leading us into next week.

No comments:

Post a Comment