Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Tonight - Becoming cloudy with light rain after midnight. Low: 30-34.

 Wednesday - Light rain then mostly cloudy after noon. Light  High: 37-41.

 Wednesday Night - Increasing clouds then light snow. Low: 17-21.

 Thursday - Wintery mix then clearing skies in afternoon. High: 32-36.


Friday - Partly sunny then rain. High: 38-42.

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It was a bright sunny day here in mid-Missouri and a very seasonal day with respect to temperatures. However, todays high will most likely be the warmest temperatures we will see over the next week. Our temperatures overnight will likely hold to be right around freezing. A cold front will push through overnight and behind it may come a little drizzle or sprinkles. The ground will likely be too warm for this precipitation to freeze, even if the air temperature is below freezing, but we can't rule out the possibility of a few slick spots. Over the next few days, the jet stream is going to shift to the south, this will funnel in colder air from the artic region and drop our temperatures much below the average for the end of Feburary/early March. While we have this dip in the jet, a few systems are going to pass through the region and give us possibilities for some wintery precipitation. The first system to move in will likely be Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Wednesday night will be well below freezing, allowing for possible snow turning to wintery mix as we warm up to just above freezing into the late morning/early afternoon on Thursday. Precipitation could last into the late afternoon on Thursday. The next batch of moisture to move in is expected to enter the region on Friday afternoon/evening and since temperatures will be in the upper 30's or lower 40's, this precipitation will be in the form of rain.

Forecasters: Azzara, Munley, Brown and Hirsch
Issued: 4:30 p.m., February 26, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
Columbia has enjoyed a well deserved last couple days with sun, blue skies, and light winds.  The jet stream during the forecast for this forecast package. This afternoon and onto this evening winds will shift from an easterly component to more of a southerly component.  The southerly winds willl allow WAA into the column, introducing moisture into the column this evening as well.  Clouds will begin to build up late afternoon and on through the evining.  GFS soundings suggest some low level moisture being introduced into the column around 06Z Wednesday.  The depth of the moisture is up to only about 740mb level, suggesting drizzle to a light rain.  As time goes on into 12Z Wednesday the moisture profile begin to dry out through the column.  We have forecasted lows to be 30-34 degrees and while confidence of freezing drizzle is low, certainly allow a few extra minutes in the morning and take it easy on the roads in your morning commute.  The cause of the precipitation overnight Tuesday into Wednesday is due to a stationary boundary that is off to our south currently and pushes up toward the area overnight in the form of a warm front Tuesday night.  The low pressure system associated with this stationary front is in its early stages of its life.  This system will be getting its act together and pushing off to the east promoting the light precip behind it and cooler temperatures because our area is going to be effected in the ways of a cold front.  Any precipitation Wednesday morning should subside by around 15-16Z.

 Clouds persist throughout the day on Wednesday and into Thursday. A short wave trough passes to our north in northern Iown during the day on Thursday.  Low forcing, lack of moisture between the surface and 850mb and a dry layer about 200mb deep in the DGZ persists throughout the column Thursday during the day, confidence of snow during the day is low, but if we do receive any snow the amounts will be a trace at best.  Clearing skies Thursday night into Friday.  We will enter the left exit region of the next long wave trough that is going to effect our area Friday afternoon, bringing our next chance of widespread rain, but will differ timeing to future shifts.   

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