Monday, February 25, 2019

Monday - Mostly sunny. High: 42-46.

Monday Night - Becoming mostly cloudy. Low: 28-32.

Tuesday - Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High: 52-56.

Tuesday Night - Becoming cloudy with light rain possible after midnight. Low: 38-42.

Wednesday - Cloudy with light rain possible before noon. High: 42-46.

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Sunshine will be in order throughout the day today with high temperatures in the mid-40s. We will see an increase in clouds tonight, although sky conditions will not become completely cloudy until late Tuesday. Lows tonight will be near 30, and highs tomorrow will jump into the mid-50s. Our next system then comes into the picture late Tuesday night into Wednesday; however, this is not anticipated to have a major impact on the region as our precipitation type would be light rain if any precipitation occurs. Lows overnight Tuesday will be around 40, and there will not be much of a rebound during the day Wednesday.

Forecasters: Ritter, Travis, and Hirsch
Issued: 10:00 a.m., February 25, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)
The main focus of this rather forecast period is narrowing down our seasonable temperatures. Went with a primarily GFS and GEFS guidance as the large spread in the SREF 2m temperature is cause for some concern. 

Monday, sunshine returns as the sfc cyclone that dominated mid-Missouri weather this past weekend has moved off to the to the Northeast and into Newfoundland. Winds have since since died down and high pressure has begun to creep down from the Upper Mississippi Valley. Cold dry air will infiltrate the Midwest bringing our temperatures back down to normal for late February. Monday afternoon, according to GFS soundings, a backing profile of the wind will gradually shift to a veering profile hinting at some minor WAA. This will allow for temperatures to get just above average into the mid 40s. 

Monday night soundings indicate a deep saturated layer from 250hPa to 400hPa. High clouds present will allow for less radiational cooling than was seen Sunday night into Monday morning. The result will be significantly warmer morning lows. Lows are expected to bottom out right around 30, considerably warmer than the 16 low that Sanborn Field recorded this morning just after sunrise. Partial cloudiness sticks around into Tuesday day with soundings pointing to the exit of high clouds with a drying out of the upper troposphere. Brief clearing looks to occur from 18Z to 21Z Tuesday. High clouds are quickly replaced, though, with a smaller saturated layer just above 850hPa. Southwesterly flow at 850hPa, and the persistent veering profile of the winds will lead to enough WAA to bump our temperatures up into the low 50s by Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures have the potential to creep higher depending on the extent of the clouds during prime diurnal heating hours. Will defer to the afternoon shift with updated model guidance to gauge the need for adjustment. 

Skies become completely cloudy Tuesday night as the mid level clouds remain, and high clouds return between 250 and 350hPa. Thick cloud decks will help trap enough outgoing LW radiation to keep temperatures well above freezing into Tuesday night.

Early Wednesday morning brings our only chance, though slight, for precipitation this forecast period. Soundings favor a saturated layer below 880hPa all the way down to the sfc, with a sliver of negative omega values. Therefore, can't rule out the possibility for some early morning drizzles Wednesday morning. With the temperatures well above freezing, expect only liquid precipitation with no impacts on the morning commute. Will defer to subsequent shifts to determine if the potential for drizzle Wednesday morning sticks around.

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