Friday, February 1, 2019


Friday Night - Mostly cloudy with morning fog. Low: 32-36.

Saturday -  Mostly cloudy. High: 54-58.

Saturday Night - Partly cloudy. Low: 42-46

Sunday - Partly cloudy. High: 60-64.

Monday - Partly sunny. High: 56-60.

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The warm front that was stalled over us today will lift northward tonight increasing our southerly flow. This flow will help to increase the temperatures this weekend, reaching to the low and mid 60s on Sunday. More southerly winds will drag low level moisture to the area that will help the cloud development thought the weekend. Calm winds Saturday morning along with the extra moisture will support the fog formation this day. No precipitation is expected during the weekend until late Sunday night into early Monday morning. So go out an enjoy the warmer air, before colder air moves in middle of next week.
Forecasters: Rojas, Johnston, and Hirsch
Issued: 4:58 p.m., February 1, 2019

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!) 

The following is based on the 12Z NAM/GFS blend model which has an average confidence for the Midwest and the plains, as in accordance with WPC. The flow at 250 mb behaves quasi-zonal, which is a break from the deep trough we had associated with the cold weather earlier this week. Warm FROPA is expected tonight which will increase our southerly flow. This flow in association with WAA will usher in warmer temperatures this weekend.

GFS 12Z cross sections for late today and Saturday agree with high values of lower level moisture, but not enough vertical motion, weak omega, will leave us cloudy. Additionally, the Skew-T at 03Z until 18Z in the lowest 100 mb on the 2nd shows 100% saturation for Saturday and calm southerly winds all morning creating fog. This moisture at surface starts to dry out at 18Z, moving out the fog and gradually decreasing the clouds in the afternoon.

Cloud increase late Sunday with precipitation chance Sunday night in to early Monday morning. This will be associated with a low pressure system that will pass to our north in Iowa. GFS shows ample amount of divergence and decent RH values. FROPA will occur Monday morning when winds shifts from the south to the northwest. The timing of the front will impact our temperatures for Monday so future forecasters need to keep an out on this. 

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