Monday, February 11, 2019

 Monday - Cloudy. Steady rain. High: 34-38.

Monday Night - Cloudy with rain. Some snow may mix in after midnight. Low: 30-34.

Tuesday - Light snow in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. Windy. High: 34-38.

Tuesday Night - Windy during the evening. Clouds increasing after midnight. Low: 22-26.

Wednesday -  Mostly cloudy. Becoming windy in the afternoon. High: 50-54.

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After a fairly eventful Sunday, pecipitation will continue today. The good news is that we expect this to be all liquid and no ice. Temperatures will struggle to get much warmer than they are currently. The rain continues into tonight, possibly mixing with, then changing over to snow before ending by noon tomorrow. Little accumulation, if any, is expected. Clouds will clear quickly Tuesday afternoon and it will become quite windy. High temperatures tomorrow will be very near those reached today. Clouds will begin to increase early Wednesday morning, amounting to mostly cloudy conditions by Wednesday afternoon. Some good news, though-it will also warm significantly, with highs in the low-50s. 
Forecasters: Travis, Ritter, and Hirsch
Issued: 10:02 a.m., February 11, 2019
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class!)

Mid-Missouri will continue to see a similar patter to what we have been seeing thus far this very active February. GFS 500hPa vortiticy shows multiple mini shortwaves ejectingout of the Southwest U.S. as we saw last week. That, combined with the 850 hPa flow out of the southwest, has already advected plenty of moisture into Missouri. Light drizzle will pick up and turn to steady rain as both soundings and time heights indicate a completely saturated atmosphere from the sfc to the tropopause and ample lift building by 20 UTC Monday. Showers will die down back to drizzles by 03 UTC Tuesday as the atmosphere dries out at 700 hPa, but remains saturated below and to the sfc. Omega decreases  as well overnight.

However, overnight Tuesday brings with it the concern for wintry precip as temperatures could drop just below freezing. Soundings show a backing profile of the winds overnight hinting at moderate CAA. If 2m temperatures are able to dip below the freezing mark, the potential for light flurries mixing in with drizzle lingers into Tuesday morning. With the already wet ground, Sanborn Field has 2-in soil temperatures above freezing, and an overnight low of only 30-34 F, no major accumulations or impacts are expected with this precip. The concern for overnight refreezing is also of little concern for the above mentioned reasons, however won't rule out the possibility for refreezing occuring on elevated surfaces or cars. Will defer to the afternoon shift to better narrow down potential for winter precip.

Precip clears out of Columbia by 15 UTC Tuesday with even some partial clearing occuring into the afternoon. We will get yet another short lived sight of the sun with BKN low clouds lingering. Despite the shot at sunshine, temperatures will not be moving much at all on Tuesday. Winds pick up 850 hPa winds in excess of 40-45 kts after 18 UTC. Clearer skies should allow for winds to mix down to the sfc. Soundings back this up as they show winds about 20-25 kts Tuesday afternoon at this time.

Skies remain partially clear into Tuesday night with winds dying down overnight. Calm winds and clearer skies will result in ample radiational cooling and temperatures will bottom out Wednesday morning near 20 degrees. Clouds move back in Wednesday afternoon and evidence of warm FROPA is present as sfc winds shift from the NW to the SW and eventually the S as the day progresses. Sfc temperatures will also see a large spike on Wednesday and could reach to the mid 50s.

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