Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Tuesday Night - Cloudy, Possible Rain. Low: 44-48

Wednesday - Cloudy Possible Rain. High: 60-64

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low: 40-44

Thursday - Cloudy, PM Rain. High 64-68

Friday - Mostly Sunny. High: 58-62

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The cloudy skies that occurred this morning have moved out of the area and are leaving
Columbia with Partly Cloudy skies for this afternoon and temperatures 10-12 degrees
below average. Tonight, skies will begin to cloud back up again and there will be a slight
possibility of rain overnight. Those cloudy skies and the potential for rain will continue
into tomorrow as well with high temperatures still near 10 degrees below average.
Overnight tomorrow night, skies will begin to clear and there will be mostly sunny skies
before 12:00 pm on Thursday. For Thursday afternoon and early evening, skies will
begin to cloud back up and a possibility for rain will come back into the picture.
Skies will clear back out once again for Friday with high temperatures much cooler
than average along the lines of 12-15 degrees below average.
Forecasters: Gallahan, Munley
Issued:  5:00pm: May 05, 2020
Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class)

WPC model preference suggests a blend of 06z GFS/12z ECMWF/and 12z NAM.
The 12z NAM and 12z ECMWF were used for this forecast due to the continuity
between the two of them being at the same time. SREF Plumes were used for
temperatures and precipitation amounts.

The main topics of interest for this forecast period are the well below average
temperatures being experienced and the potential for rain the next couple of days,
when that will occur and how much rain will fall.

250mb winds show Missouri in a zonal pattern for the next 24 hours, however, the
pattern begins to become more meridional with there being a northwest flow coming
out of southern Canada. This northwest flow will continue all the way until the end of
the week when it begins to flatten out and become more zonal once again. This
northwest flow is the driver for the below average temperatures being experienced.

500mb vorticity shows little in the way of atmospheric circulation this afternoon.
Late this evening and into early tomorrow morning however, the circulation begins
to pick back up as a small shortwave associated with the northwest flow long-wave
will make its way into the area. This will be an indication of a potential atmospheric
disturbance. Going into the next two days, there will be multiple shortwaves
embedded in the aforementioned northwest flow long-wave that will make their
way across the northern plains and into our area. With these shortwaves bring the
potential for rain with them.

700mb RH and UVM look to remain dry until this evening when the atmosphere
starts to become saturated again associated with the 500mb shortwaves. Along
with the shortwaves, the 700mb RH will not be totally saturated, but will reach
values of 70 to 80% along with UVM values reaching 2 to 4 ubar/s. The higher
values are located in the southwest portion of Missouri. Based on this, we can say
that rain can't be ruled out but the higher possibilities look to be off to the
southwest as well for tonight. The main rain maker will be this coming Thursday
evening. RH values will be reaching near 90% and UVM values will be reaching
as high as 20 ubar/s.

When looking at potential thunderstorms coming out of this, they look to be
minimal. This is due to there being a lack of low level support as 850mb winds
look to be minimal with winds no stronger than 20 knots. This lack of low level
support will hinder any chance of this rain to become anymore than just rain due
to their being a lack of moisture coming off of the Gulf of Mexico. With all this being
said, the rainfall totals look to be minimal for tonight into tomorrow along the lines
of 0.02 to 0.05 inches. Thursday looks to be the wettest day of the week with rainfall
totals to be around 0.5 inches.

Once late Thursday evening comes around, the skies will begin to clear out and
temperatures will be well below average along the lines of 10 to 15 degrees below
average. Skies will remain sunny for Friday with temperatures once again much
cooler than average again along the lines of 10 to 15 degrees below average.

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