Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Monday- Mostly sunny, breezy. High: 82-86
Monday Night- Mostly clear. Low: 60-64
Tuesday- Mostly sunny. High: 82-86
Tuesday Night- Mostly cloudy, possibility of thunderstorms/showers. Low: 62-66
Wednesday- Mostly cloudy, possibility of thunderstorms/showers. High: 68-72
Central Missouri is looking to start out this week well above the 30 year average temperature of 69 for April. Monday afternoon we will see southwesterly flowing winds which will help aid in our temperatures topping out in the lower 80’s. As we head throughout today, winds will continue to increase thanks to the passing high pressure system we are seeing over much of the midwest. Winds are expected to be sustained in the 20-30 mph range with wind gust topping out in the 40’s, so you’ll definitely want to hold out on putting out the garbage if you can. Overnight we will bottom out in the lower 60’s with winds beginning to decrease. We will see another breezy day on Tuesday, but not nearly as strong as we will see Monday afternoon. We will remain dry throughout the day Tuesday, but late in the afternoon clouds will begin to push in from the west. Tuesday night late, pop-up storms will begin to develop out ahead of an incoming cold front. These storms could be strong to severe, but the likelihood of strong storms will begin to diminish heading into early Wednesday morning where we see heavy showers stay with us throughout the remainder of Wednesday. By the end of the day Wednesday, we could see rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range with some isolated areas exceeding 2 inches. Flash flooding and flooding will be of high concern on Wednesday morning throughout the remainder of Wednesday.
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This forecast was generated with the blend of the 06z GFS and NAM model run. The current GFS model guidance is accurately depicting the location of the upper level ridge, temperature advection, while the NAM accurately depicts moisture placement and QPF on Wednesday. The main focus for this forecast period will be Tuesday night as the possibility of thunderstorms increases and Wednesday’s rainfall totals that could cause flash flooding and flooding conditions.
Currently, an upper-level trough is located over the Great Plains region, while much of the midwest is sitting under an upper-level ridge. Missouri is currently influenced by south-southwesterly flowing lower-level winds which will lead to increased temperatures for Monday. Due to the southwesterly flowing winds aloft, the atmosphere above Central Missouri will remain dry.
Highs for Monday afternoon will be in the lower 80’s thanks to strong low level WAA, southwesterly winds, and mostly clear sky conditions. Sustained winds are expected to range between 20-30mph with gusts in the 40’s. Monday night the upper level ridge will continue to push east over eastern Missouri as winds continue to be out of the south with a tight pressure gradient at the surface increasing our overnight temperatures. Winds will continue out of the south/ southwest as strong WAA persists which will lead to similar highs Tuesday as we saw on Monday.We will see another breezy day Tuesday, but not nearly as strong of winds as we see Monday afternoon. Tuesday night showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop due to the moisture transport from the LLJ, UVM, and increased amounts of CAPE.The probability of storms will increase late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning around 1am. The LLJ and the area of moisture convergence at the surface will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms throughout Wednesday, but as we head later on Wednesday morning the possibility of strong thunderstorms will diminish. PWAT values range from 1-1.5 inches Wednesday which could signal higher rainfall averages for Missouri. Our main concern is the timing of the heaviest amount of rainfall as we expect to see 1-2 inches which can cause flooding and flash flooding for the CWA. Areas along and south of the I-70 corridor will most likely see the heaviest rainfall with rainfall totals possibly at or exceeding 2 inches. CAPE values Wednesday suggest the possibility of weaker thunderstorms throughout the day to occur along with the heavy rainfall at times.
The next forecasters main area of concern will be the amount of rainfall and exit timing we will see on Thursday as the approaching cold front passes overhead and out of Central Missouri.
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