Wednesday, May 5, 2021

 

Current Conditions at Sanborn Field

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Wednesday -
Clouds build through the afternoon. High: 66-70



Wednesday
Night- Partly cloudy. Low: 46-50


Status weather showers scattered icon

Thursday
- Mostly cloudy with showers in the late morning. High: 60-64


Thursday
Night- Clouds clearing. Low: 40-44
 

Friday
- Mostly sunny. High: 62-66


 
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Discussion:

It's a chilly start to the day with winds coming out of the north to kick off Wednesday. Sunny skies won't stick around too long as clouds will start building in through the afternoon as a series of high pressure systems that are expected to move through the area will kick start changes to our weather pattern. Rain chances will stay out of the area until late Thursday morning. You may need your rain jacket on Thursday, but a washout is not expected. Conditions will dry out for Friday as the sun makes a comeback. Temperatures will be holding fairly steady in the 60s through the end of the week.

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Forecaster: Bongard, Baker, Est
Issued: 10:00 AM CST 05 May 2021

Technical Discussion (The nerdy stuff we are discussing in class):

This forecast was assembled using the 06Z GFS guidance along with GEFS plumes and related soundings. The GFS was chosen over other models as it most accurately placed the surface high pressure system over the southwestern corner of Missouri.

 

250-mb plots of wind show a small jet max pushing through mid-Missouri at 03Z Thursday, but that is the only jet max within the forecast area for the forecast period.

 

Vorticity guidance at the 500-mb level show low vorticity levels throughout Wednesday. By Thursday at 15Z, vorticity output looks to increase over the forecast area until 06Z Friday. After 06Z Friday, vorticity levels will remain low to conclude the week.

 

At the 700-mb level, RH guidance suggests little moisture in the area to kick off Wednesday. Moisture moves into the area at 03Z Thursday and will be over the forecast area until 21Z Thursday. Moisture will briefly clear out at this level for Thursday evening, but RH values appear to be on the rise again at 15Z Friday through the end of the forecast period. Clouds could be a possibility with this moisture, but soundings will be used to determine rain chances.

 

850-mb winds show no jet max moving over Missouri for the forecast period. RH at this level brings moisture into the area at 21Z Wednesday and keeps that moisture in the area through the end of the forecast period. Temperatures at this level show high pressure located over the Panhandle region of the US to start Wednesday. As this high pressure pushes eastward past Missouri, our winds will shift from northerly to become more westerly by 03Z Thursday. As a high pressure system over Texas pushes eastward Thursday, our winds will shift yet again to become northerly by 09Z Friday. This wind shift will be brief as that high pressure system continues to move east.

 

At the surface level, Missouri is under the influence of high pressure that is located in SEMO. This is bringing sunny skies to the area, but northerly winds on the back end of a cold front that moved through previously will cause a chilly start to the day. A high pressure system currently located over Nebraska will trek to the southeast, causing northerly winds through Friday at 06Z. As that high pressure slides to the south of Missouri, our winds will become more westerly for the entirety of Friday.

 

Soundings for Thursday show saturation near 15Z Thursday that could allow for some light showers to impact the area. Low CAPE values suggest that these will not be thunderstorms. Soundings for Thursday afternoon and Friday suggest minimal saturation ruling out rain chances.


Future forecasters should keep an eye on Saturday's system that looks to be bringing rain to the area.

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