Wednesday Night: Clear. Low: 58

 

 

Thursday: Sunny. High: 85

 

 

Thursday Night: Clear. Low: 60
 

 

 

Friday: Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High: 88

 

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Low: 65

 

 

 

 

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Discussion:

Continuing the trend of fair weather for Columbia, this week will bring clear skies and warm temperatures. The passage of a cold front Tuesday night brought cooler temperatures with the rest of the week warming up afterwards. Temperatures will be at their peak for this forecasting period Friday afternoon in the upper 80s. Winds from the south will bring moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in clouds moving into the area Friday around 4 pm. Overall, the rest of this week will see seasonable weather with no precipitation. 

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 Forecasters: McMullen, Noblitt, Cochran

Date Issued: 09/15/21 5:00 pM CST

Technical discussion:

The 12Z run of the GFS was used in today's forecast because unfortunately NAM was not cooperating on CAVE. SREF and GEFS plumes were referenced for temperatures and GFS soundings were used for cloud estimates.

 

To start off the forecasting period, a trough can be seen exiting the Columbia area on the 250mb plots of height, wind, and divergence. As the LPS leaves, Missouri is left in zonal flow with westerly winds until Friday at 09Z. At this time, the wind shifts to the north as an area of high pressure passes near Oklahoma. The state returns to zonal flow and winds from the west briefly as the week ends. The jet streak continues to stay in the northern states and Canada during this time.

The zonal flow over the middle and upper Mississippi valley is reflected on the 500-mb plots of height and vorticity. The highest levels of vorticity in CONUS can be seen moving eastward with the trough, leaving Missouri with an absence of circulation until Friday at 09Z. This vorticity appears to spear off of a LPS sitting in Texas.

The 700 mb plots of height, vertical velocity, and relative humidity show the moisture associated with the cold front from earlier in the week continuing to move eastward. This leaves the area dry until the aforementioned LPS in Texas brings moisture as Friday night approaches. This leads to saturation in the southern and northern regions of Missouri, but misses the Columbia area keeping the air dry at this level. Soundings from this time show some saturation around 800 mb, leading to some light low level clouds in the afternoon and evening.

Looking at the heights, winds, and temperatures on the 800-mb level, mid-Missouri sees southerly winds dominating the majority of the forecast period. A similar wind direction is shown on the MSLP and 1000-500 mb thickness plot. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid 80s rising to high 80s as Tuesday's cold front's influence sputters out. This map also shows weak WAA as the week closes, so the temperature is expected to rise only gradually.

Future forecast shifts should pay attention to the rising moisture levels going into the weekend.