Current Conditions at Sanborn Field
Thursday Night: Partly Cloudy. Low: 61
Friday: Mostly Sunny. High: 82
Friday Night: Increasing cloudiness throughout the night. Low: 67
Saturday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High: 87
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, breezy. Low: 68
Discussion:
The partly cloudy conditions seen Thursday afternoon will persist into the overnight hours. The low pressure system moves east by Friday morning, taking the clouds with it. By Friday afternoon, the sky will be mostly sunny with temperatures warming into the lower 80s. By Friday night, clouds will begin returning, slowly becoming mostly cloudy by dawn. The clouds will quickly exit Saturday morning allowing temperatures to become unseasonably warm at 87 degrees. Winds will also increase allowing for breezy conditions for the Mizzou Homecoming Game. Winds will continue into the night with unseasonably warm conditions persisting.
-Meyer, Heienickle
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Forecasters: Heienickle, Meyer, Orr
Date Issued: 10/7/21 5:00 PM CST
Technical discussion:
The model used for this forecast was the 12Z run of the GFS. We chose this as it more closely reflected current conditions when we overlaid the model on a current surface map as opposed to the NAM. We also used soundings from the GFS to assess the cloud cover through the forecast period. To aid in analyzing forecast temperatures, the GEFS and SREF plumes were used.
At the 250-mb level, the low pressure system which has been over Missouri for the past few days begins to move east out of our area by 12Z Friday. A ridge takes its place coming from the Central Plains, which will begin to move in by 12Z Saturday, encompassing Mid-Missouri by 18Z Saturday. A jet streak associated with the ridge sits to the west of Missouri through the end of the forecast period.
The 500-mb map shows the vorticity associated with the low pressure system overhead moving out by 18Z Friday. Vorticity then moves over central Missouri by 06Z Saturday along the ridge. The vorticity exits quickly by 15Z Saturday, and conditions will remain stable until after the forecast period. Future forecasters should pay special attention to the large amounts of vorticity associated with an incoming trough.
At 700-mb, high amounts of relative humidity move out of Mid-Missouri by 21Z Friday. Cloud cover increases at 09Z Saturday due to high amounts of relative humidity developing over southeastern Missouri, which moves out by 18Z Saturday. The rest of the forecast period will see lower amounts of humidity, leading to mostly clear skies.
The 850-mb level shows the easterly winds over Missouri beginning to turn southerly on Friday, bringing in warmer air from the Southern Plains. Warm air advection continues throughout the forecast period, leading to temperatures being 10-15 degrees above average for October. Saturday's record high for Columbia is 91 degrees, and the forecast high for Saturday is 87. A low-level jet begins taking shape by 15Z Saturday. However, abundant moisture is kept to our south due to the southwesterly winds.
At the surface, warm air advection begins around 18Z Friday as seen by the development of solenoids. Winds will start to increase Saturday up to 15 knots out of the southwest allowing for breezy conditions which will continue through the end of the forecast period.
-Meyer, Heienickle
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